FNUS75 KBOU 021159 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR GLACIER BASIN PILE BURN...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 558 AM MDT THU APR 2 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A DRY...STABLE AND WARMER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT HANG AROUND LONG AS IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO PASS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION BY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD CONTINUE DRY THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SUNSHINE WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SCENERIOS AS TO HOW THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHEAST COLORADO. LATEST INDICATIONS STILL POINT TO SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SHOULD THIS STORM SYSTEM TRACK AS FAR NORTH AS SOME MODELS INDICATE...THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....37-44. MIN HUMIDITY........45-52%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-13 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 3400-4400 FT AGL BY 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2000...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....18-24. MAX HUMIDITY........89-96%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2600 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 200-800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1700...THEN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-45. MIN HUMIDITY........37-44%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 10-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1600 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 5000-6000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1200. LOWS AROUND 12. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR GLACIER BASIN PILE BURN. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/02-05 34 10 14 75 W 12 1 1607 W 15 21178 P 04/02-06 52 0 14 74 W 12 12 2 1 NW48 1591 W 16 22203 P 04/02-07 52 0 16 66 W 10 1 2389 W 18 40436 F 04/02-08 52 0 19 58 W 10 1 3187 W 21 58669 F 04/02-09 52 0 22 52 W 10 10 2 1 NW49 3984 W 22 76902 G 04/02-10 52 0 25 52 W 12 1 4261 W 23 87299 G 04/02-11 52 0 27 54 W 12 1 4537 W 24 97696 G 04/02-12 35 0 29 56 W 12 12 2 1 NW51 4814 W 25 108093 V 04/02-13 35 0 31 54 W 12 1 4687 W 25 103532 V 04/02-14 35 0 30 56 W 10 1 4560 W 25 98971 G 04/02-15 35 0 30 57 W 10 10 2 1 NW51 4434 W 24 94411 G 04/02-16 35 0 29 60 W 9 1 3840 W 23 77599 G 04/02-17 35 0 28 63 W 9 1 3247 W 21 60787 G 04/02-18 52 1 27 66 W 9 9 2 1 W51 2653 W 20 43975 F 04/02-19 52 1 27 69 W 9 1 2061 W 17 33128 P 04/02-20 52 1 26 71 SW 9 1 1468 SW 16 22281 P 04/02-21 52 1 25 73 SW 9 9 2 1 W47 876 SW 15 11435 P 04/02-22 52 1 25 74 SW 9 1 809 SW 15 10632 P 04/02-23 52 1 24 75 SW 9 1 743 SW 15 9829 P 04/03-00 67 1 23 76 SW 9 9 3 1 W44 677 SW 15 9026 P 04/03-01 67 1 22 82 SW 9 1 567 SW 15 7281 P 04/03-02 67 1 22 88 SW 9 1 457 SW 14 5536 P 04/03-03 67 1 21 97 SW 9 9 3 1 W47 347 SW 13 3791 P 04/03-04 67 1 20 100 SW 9 1 318 SW 13 3567 P 04/03-05 67 1 20 100 SW 9 1 289 W 14 3343 P 04/03-06 68 10 21 95 W 13 13 2 1 W40 385 W 20 6656 P 04/03-07 68 10 21 69 W 13 1 1826 W 24 48024 F 04/03-08 68 10 24 61 W 14 1 3267 W 28 89392 G 04/03-09 68 10 27 53 W 14 22 2 1 W66 4708 W 32 130761 V 04/03-10 68 10 30 48 W 14 1 4954 W 31 131452 V 04/03-11 68 10 33 46 W 13 1 5200 SW 30 132143 V 04/03-12 82 30 35 45 SW 13 13 2 1 SW70 5446 SW 28 132834 V 04/03-13 82 30 37 44 SW 13 1 5686 SW 28 138739 V 04/03-14 82 30 39 43 SW 14 1 5925 SW 28 144644 V 04/03-15 82 30 39 42 SW 13 13 2 1 SW45 6165 SW 28 150550 E 04/03-16 82 30 39 41 SW 9 1 5899 SW 24 125620 V 04/03-17 82 30 38 40 S 5 1 5632 S 21 100690 V 04/03-18 94 70 36 41 CALM 1 2 1 SW35 5366 S 16 75760 G 04/03-19 94 70 35 43 SE 2 1 5108 S 16 70971 G 04/03-20 94 70 32 49 E 6 1 4850 SE 16 66182 G 04/03-21 94 70 29 57 E 8 8 2 1 S31 4592 SE 15 61394 G 04/03-22 94 70 27 63 E 8 1 4243 SE 15 54224 F 04/03-23 94 70 25 69 NE 8 1 3894 E 14 47055 F 04/04-00 99 70 24 74 NE 8 8 2 1 S26 3545 E 13 39885 P 04/04-01 99 70 23 78 NE 10 1 3700 E 17 56065 F 04/04-02 99 70 22 81 NE 14 1 3855 NE 21 72246 G 04/04-03 99 70 22 82 N 17 28 2 1 SE22 4010 NE 25 88426 G 04/04-04 99 70 22 83 N 18 1 4343 NE 26 99375 G 04/04-05 99 70 22 81 N 20 1 4675 N 26 110325 V 04/04-06 98 70 22 79 NW 21 33 2 1 NE12 5008 N 28 121274 V 04/04-07 98 70 23 76 NW 22 1 5029 N 28 121781 V 04/04-08 98 70 22 79 NW 23 1 5051 N 28 122288 V 04/04-09 98 70 23 75 NW 23 37 2 1 NE20 5072 N 28 122795 V 04/04-10 98 70 24 70 NW 23 1 5106 N 29 127851 V 04/04-11 98 70 25 66 NW 23 1 5139 N 30 132906 V 04/04-12 98 70 25 62 NW 23 37 2 1 N23 5173 N 31 137962 V 04/04-13 98 70 26 59 NW 22 1 5205 N 31 140886 V 04/04-14 98 70 26 58 NW 22 1 5238 N 31 143811 V 04/04-15 98 70 27 58 NW 21 33 2 1 N26 5270 N 32 146735 V 04/04-16 98 70 26 59 NW 21 1 5240 N 30 138714 V 04/04-17 98 70 26 63 N 21 1 5209 N 29 130693 V 04/04-18 91 44 24 71 N 20 31 2 1 N37 5179 N 28 122672 V 04/04-19 91 44 23 78 N 17 1 5140 N 26 117782 V 04/04-20 91 44 21 85 NW 14 1 5102 N 25 112893 V 04/04-21 91 44 18 93 NW 10 10 2 1 NE36 5064 N 24 108003 V 04/04-22 91 44 16 98 NW 8 1 4942 N 21 88491 G 04/04-23 91 44 15 100 NW 7 1 4820 N 16 68979 G 04/05-00 81 44 15 100 NW 6 6 2 1 N32 4698 N 13 49467 F 04/05-01 81 44 14 100 NW 6 1 4204 N 12 40958 F 04/05-02 81 44 13 100 W 6 1 3710 NW 9 32450 P 04/05-03 81 44 13 100 W 6 6 2 1 N23 3215 NW 8 23942 P 04/05-04 81 44 13 99 W 7 1 2914 NW 10 25641 P 04/05-05 81 44 13 97 W 8 1 2612 NW 13 27339 P 04/05-06 51 6 13 96 W 9 9 2 1 NW21 2310 NW 15 29038 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DOUG WATRY REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090402.GLACI.01/BOU