FNUS75 KBOU 021523 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SUGARLOAF F1...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 922 AM MDT THU APR 2 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LEE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE FIRE AREA TODAY THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SNOW TO THE FRONT RANGE BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO FROM FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY EVENING. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....39. MIN HUMIDITY........43%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2400...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....23. MAX HUMIDITY........85-90%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST 7-12 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....45. MIN HUMIDITY........33%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 12-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3800 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 5400-6000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1300...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1200. LOWS AROUND 14. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SUGARLOAF F1. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/02-09 31 0 25 50 W 9 9 2 1 NW48 3335 W 18 52424 F 04/02-10 31 0 27 49 W 9 1 3732 W 20 63734 G 04/02-11 31 0 30 50 W 9 1 4130 W 21 75043 G 04/02-12 33 0 32 50 W 9 9 2 1 NW49 4527 W 22 86352 G 04/02-13 33 0 34 45 W 9 1 4454 W 22 83011 G 04/02-14 33 0 33 44 W 8 1 4382 W 21 79669 G 04/02-15 33 0 33 43 W 8 8 2 1 NW49 4310 W 21 76328 G 04/02-16 33 0 32 45 W 8 1 3427 W 17 56994 F 04/02-17 33 0 31 47 W 7 1 2545 W 15 37660 P 04/02-18 55 1 31 50 W 7 7 2 1 W49 1663 W 13 18327 P 04/02-19 55 1 30 54 W 7 1 1327 W 13 14510 P 04/02-20 55 1 29 58 W 7 1 992 W 13 10694 P 04/02-21 55 1 28 61 W 8 8 2 1 W46 656 W 12 6877 P 04/02-22 55 1 28 63 W 8 1 654 W 13 7067 P 04/02-23 55 1 27 65 SW 8 1 653 SW 13 7257 P 04/03-00 66 1 26 67 SW 8 8 3 1 W43 651 SW 13 7447 P 04/03-01 66 1 26 69 SW 8 1 553 SW 13 6083 P 04/03-02 66 1 25 73 SW 8 1 456 SW 12 4719 P 04/03-03 66 1 24 80 SW 8 8 3 1 W47 358 SW 10 3355 P 04/03-04 66 1 24 89 SW 8 1 326 SW 10 3080 P 04/03-05 66 1 23 100 SW 8 1 295 SW 12 2806 P 04/03-06 69 10 24 95 W 10 10 2 1 W44 239 SW 14 2881 P 04/03-07 69 10 24 65 W 15 1 1061 W 22 30478 P 04/03-08 69 10 27 56 W 17 1 1883 W 29 58075 F 04/03-09 69 10 30 48 W 20 31 2 1 W53 2705 W 37 85673 G 04/03-10 69 10 34 42 W 20 1 3594 W 37 113975 V 04/03-11 69 10 37 40 W 17 1 4484 W 37 142277 V 04/03-12 79 30 40 38 W 15 24 2 1 SW61 5373 W 37 170579 E 04/03-13 79 30 42 37 W 13 1 5587 SW 30 144415 V 04/03-14 79 30 43 36 W 9 1 5802 SW 24 118251 V 04/03-15 79 30 44 35 W 7 7 2 1 SW31 6016 S 17 92086 G 04/03-16 79 30 44 34 W 6 1 5796 S 15 77180 G 04/03-17 79 30 43 33 NW 5 1 5576 S 13 62274 G 04/03-18 95 70 41 35 N 5 5 2 1 SW29 5356 S 10 47369 F 04/03-19 95 70 39 37 N 6 1 5035 S 12 49138 F 04/03-20 95 70 36 43 NE 7 1 4714 SE 13 50907 F 04/03-21 95 70 33 52 E 8 8 2 1 S37 4394 SE 14 52676 F 04/03-22 95 70 30 59 E 7 1 4171 E 15 52220 F 04/03-23 95 70 29 66 NE 7 1 3948 E 15 51764 F 04/04-00 98 70 28 72 NE 7 7 2 1 S25 3726 E 16 51308 F 04/04-01 98 70 27 76 NE 10 1 3854 NE 20 67237 G 04/04-02 98 70 26 78 NE 14 1 3982 NE 24 83166 G 04/04-03 98 70 25 79 N 16 24 2 1 SE21 4110 NE 28 99095 G 04/04-04 98 70 25 79 N 15 1 4389 NE 28 104275 V 04/04-05 98 70 25 77 N 14 1 4669 N 26 109456 V 04/04-06 97 70 26 75 NW 13 20 2 1 N13 4949 N 26 114636 V 04/04-07 97 70 26 74 NW 14 1 4944 N 26 114140 V 04/04-08 97 70 25 78 NW 15 1 4940 N 26 113645 V 04/04-09 97 70 26 76 NW 17 26 2 1 N18 4936 NW 26 113149 V 04/04-10 97 70 26 72 NW 18 1 5008 NW 26 117730 V 04/04-11 97 70 27 69 NW 20 1 5081 NW 28 122311 V 04/04-12 97 70 28 66 NW 20 30 2 1 N26 5153 NW 29 126891 V 04/04-13 97 70 28 64 NW 18 1 5179 N 29 128616 V 04/04-14 97 70 28 62 NW 17 1 5205 N 29 130341 V 04/04-15 97 70 28 62 NW 15 23 2 1 N35 5231 N 29 132066 V 04/04-16 97 70 28 64 N 14 1 5194 N 28 126404 V 04/04-17 97 70 27 67 N 14 1 5156 N 26 120743 V 04/04-18 91 44 26 75 N 13 20 2 1 N38 5119 N 25 115081 V 04/04-19 91 44 24 81 N 12 1 5029 N 25 113124 V 04/04-20 91 44 22 87 N 9 1 4940 N 26 111168 V 04/04-21 91 44 20 94 NW 8 8 2 1 N37 4850 N 26 109211 V 04/04-22 91 44 18 99 NW 6 1 4517 N 22 88113 G 04/04-23 91 44 17 100 NW 5 1 4184 N 17 67014 G 04/05-00 79 44 16 100 NW 3 3 2 1 N33 3852 N 14 45915 F 04/05-01 79 44 16 100 NW 3 1 3221 N 12 35506 P 04/05-02 79 44 15 100 W 5 1 2590 NW 10 25096 P 04/05-03 79 44 15 100 W 6 6 2 1 N25 1959 NW 8 14686 P 04/05-04 79 44 14 99 W 8 1 1855 NW 10 16000 P 04/05-05 79 44 15 97 W 10 1 1750 NW 12 17313 P 04/05-06 49 10 15 96 W 13 20 2 1 NW21 1645 W 13 18627 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...BILL ALAKAI REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090402.SUGAR.01/BOU