FNUS73 KPAH 041501 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR BRANDON SPRINGS FACILITY BURN...USFS LBL NAT REC AREA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1001 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON APRIL 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT EAST WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED MOVING INTO THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE AS THE INVERSION ALOFT DUE TO THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER...SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 1700 FOOT MINUMUM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH SUNSET. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND FLOW FROM THE LAKE...NO LOCAL ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE OR RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........57 AT IGNITION...MAX 69. RH..................49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2900-3900 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 21 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............57 60 64 66 67 68 67 66 RH..............49 43 39 38 37 38 40 43 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 3 3 4 2 2 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.9 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.14 13 12 12 12 14 16 21 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51. RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1100-1500 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 23 TO 26 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC CDY WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............65 62 60 58 57 56 55 54 54 53 53 52 RH..............47 52 58 62 64 69 72 74 74 80 80 86 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.7 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.25 26 26 26 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 23 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 70. RH..................MIN 57 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 57 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-4200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 23 TO 30 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............52 60 66 68 RH..............89 78 73 65 20 FT WIND......S 6G10 S 9G20 S 10G25 SW 10G25 MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1700 2500 3600 TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 23 S 24 SW 28 CWR.............0 0 60 60 HAINES INDEX....2 2 3 4 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...JAMEY THWEATT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090404.BRAND.01/PAH