FNUS73 KPAH 041442 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR TPL TRACT...USFS SHAWNEE NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 942 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WITH THE SOUTHERN ASPECT FOR THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED 1 TO 3 DEGREES HIGHER TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER INSOLATION FOR THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. HOURLY RELATIVE HUMIDIITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD 3 TO 5 PERCENT AS A LITTLE MORE MIXING WILL BE EXPECTED AS SURFACE WIND GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FLOOD PLAIN...WINDS MAY BE ENHANCED AND MIX MORE EFFICIENTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED BETWEEN 3500 TO 4000 FEET AGL...AS THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN STRONG ALOFT THROUGH 7 PM. ANY RESIDUAL BURNING OR SMOKE PLUME AFTER 7 PM WILL QUICKLY DROP AT OR BELOW THE 1700 FOOT AGL MINIMUM BEFORE 9 PM. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 66. RH..................54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 34 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 900-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-4200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST 15 TO 24 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 28 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............56 58 61 64 65 66 67 66 65 RH..............53 43 37 32 30 30 32 34 39 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 5 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.5 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 2.8 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.20 20 18 17 17 18 21 24 28 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 52 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800-1900 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 24 TO 32 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 21 TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........PC PC MC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............63 60 59 57 56 56 55 54 53 53 52 52 RH..............45 53 57 64 66 69 72 74 80 83 86 89 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.0 3.6 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.32 31 30 28 24 22 21 21 22 22 23 24 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 50 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 65. RH..................MIN 47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................58 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-4600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 23 TO 31 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 33 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............52 58 62 63 RH..............93 83 75 60 20 FT WIND......S 6G10 S 8G15 SW 10G20 W 10G20 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 2400 3500 4300 TRANSPORT WIND..S 25 SW 23 W 23 W 29 CWR.............60 60 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090404.TPLTR.01/PAH