FNUS73 KTOP 041256
FWSTOP

SPOT FORECAST FOR IOWA BURNS...BIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
756 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1005 CDT ON APRIL 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MIN RH VALUES LOOK TO OCCUR EITHER
LATE THIS MORNING OR RIGHT AROUND NOON AS RISING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COMPETING WITH MOISTURE RETURN MAKING THE MIN RH HARD TO PIN DOWN.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE WARM
FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  AS LONG AS
THIS PLACEMENT IS CORRECT THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
PAN OUT.  IF THE WARM FRONT SETS UP FURTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
REGARDLESS WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN SPEED RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH
SOME DAYTIME HEATING WITH A 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN KS.
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY NOON.  THE
FIRE DANGER INDEX CLIMBS INTO THE HIGH CATEGORY TODAY LIMITED BY
ESTIMATED INCREASE IN PERCENTAGE GREEN FROM SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  IF
FUELS ARE DRIER THAN ESTIMATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
                    PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 66.
RH..................40 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 24 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE BREEZY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 21
                    TO 26 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD /34200 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.
                    MAX...EXCELLENT /209600 KNOT-FT/.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE
                    EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH THE
                    NIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
                    CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 38.
RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 14 TO 19 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST 17 TO 22 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN...POOR /6600 KNOT-FT/.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. CHANCE OF
                    PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 40.
RH..................MIN 61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 17 TO 22 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 2.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX...EXCELLENT /181300 KNOT-FT/.

$$
FORECASTER...CAVANAUGH
REQUESTED BY...ADAM ROGERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090404.IOWAB.01/TOP