FNUS73 KAPX 051259 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR LOLI...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 859 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1230 EDT ON APRIL 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED AT THE IGNITION SITE TODAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS STORM TRACK WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH ONLY CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTEND WITH AT THE IGNITION SITE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED FLURRIES. TEMPERATURE.........36 AT IGNITION...MAX 42. RH..................61 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING NORTH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1200-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (300). TIME (EDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....SCATTERED SCATTERED SCATTERED WEATHER TYPE....FLURRIES FLURRIES FLURRIES TEMP............35 38 42 RH..............61 54 50 20 FT WIND......N 4 N 4 NE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 5 4 SMOKE DISP......100 0 200 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 25. RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 23 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2800 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 2. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN GOOD(300). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW TEMP............41 34 30 27 RH..............52 66 78 88 20 FT WIND......NE 7G20 NE 9G20 N 9G20 N 9G25 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 3 SMOKE DISP......300 400 300 300 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 35. RH..................MIN 54 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 23 TO 28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3500 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1000). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM SKY (%).........100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....SNOW SNOW SNOW TEMP............25 29 35 RH..............96 75 54 20 FT WIND......N 11G20 N 14G30 N 15G30 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......500 600 900 $$ FORECASTER...KEVIN SULLIVAN REQUESTED BY...PAUL ROOSE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090405.LOLI_.01/APX