FNUS73 KAPX 051310 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH BRANCH SAVANNAH...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 910 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON APRIL 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED AT THE IGNITION SITE TODAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS STORM TRACK WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH ONLY CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES TO CONTEND WITH AT THE IGNITION SITE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED FLURRIES. TEMPERATURE.........38 AT IGNITION...MAX 44. RH..................57 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION... OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING NORTH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1200-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (300). TIME (EDT) 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........100 100 WEATHER COV.....SCATTERED SCATTERED WEATHER TYPE....FLURRIES FLURRIES TEMP............38 43 RH..............57 51 20 FT WIND......NE 4 NE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 HAINES INDEX....5 4 SMOKE DISP......0 200 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 26. RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 24 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2400 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 2. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN GOOD(300). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW TEMP............42 36 33 31 29 29 RH..............53 64 72 78 85 85 20 FT WIND......NE 6 NE 7 N 7 N 9 N 10 N 11 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 25 25 HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 2 3 3 SMOKE DISP......300 400 300 300 300 400 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 36. RH..................MIN 56 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 13 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 25 TO 29 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3300 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1000). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW TEMP............28 26 29 33 35 36 RH..............88 92 78 66 61 56 20 FT WIND......N 12 N 13 N 16 N 16 N 16 N 15 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 30 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......500 600 600 700 800 900 $$ FORECASTER...KEVIN SULLIVAN REQUESTED BY...JOE ALYEA TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090405.SOUTH.02/APX