FNUS74 KEPZ 082210 FWSEPZ FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NOSKER...LNF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 410 PM MDT WED APR 8 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1610 MDT ON APRIL 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... .DISCUSSION... WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT LOCAL WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TERRAIN EFFECTS...WITH EAST-FACING SLOPES MOST FAVORED FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS. CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN IS ZERO...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS MIN RH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL NOT QUITE DROP TO 15% BASED ON YOUR OB AND SURROUNDING RAWS SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FORECAST AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE REEXAMINED LATER TONIGHT. .THIS AFTERNOON... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CWR.................0 PERCENT. TEMPERATURE.........74 AT IGNITION. MAX ALSO 74. RH..................20 PERCENT AT IGNITION. MIN 18 PERCENT. WIND (20-FT)........SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT IGNITION. INCREASING 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH THIS EVENING. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (30-40 PERCENT). CWR.................0 PERCENT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 38. RH..................MAX 36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY..WEST 29 TO 36 WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). CWR.................0 PERCENT. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63. RH..................MIN 9 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY..WEST 28 TO 36 MPH DECREASING TO 21 TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. $$ FORECASTER...HARDIMAN REQUESTED BY...NM ADC REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090408.NOSKE.01/EPZ UE THURSDAY AS THE AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA BY THU AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM WARMING TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH FILTERED APRIL SUNSHINE...A RELATIVELY DRY SFC AIR MASS...AND CONTINUED STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. FREEZING TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED ANYWHERE TONIGHT. MAV/MET MOS VERY SIMILAR...SO HAVE NOT DEVIATED FAR FROM GUIDANCE AT ALL...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE MET MOS. AFT THU...OUR CONCERNS TURN TO THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE SW U.S. AND INTO THE MID U.S. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO UNDERGO SOME DAMPENING AS MOVES ENE TOWARD THE RETREATING POLAR VORTEX...I AM MUCH MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA FRI THAN I WAS YESTERDAY. LIS OF -4 TO -6...A MODEST LLJ OF 35-45KTS...AND CAPES OF 1500+ J/KG TRAVERSE THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON. WHILE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DRIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL BE WEAKENING...THE AREA APPEARS TO BE PRIMED FOR TSRA REDEVELOPMENT IN AN INCREASINGLY WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS ALREADY OUTLOOKED THE AREA FOR SEVERE AND GIVEN GROWING CONCERN AND PROGGED DYNAMICS/THERMODYNAMICS...ALSO PLAN TO MENTION SEVERE IN THE ZONES WITH THIS PACKAGE. ON THE OTHER HAND...QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY ONE INCH OR LESS...AND POTENTIALLY JUST SCT ACTIVITY...SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ECMWF/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UNFOLDING SCENARIO. THE UPPER SYSTEM DAMPENS FURTHER AS IT MOVES ENE OF THE REGION SUN...TAKING THE SHRA/TSRA AND SEVERE WX WITH IT. ECMWF/GFS KEEP MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...FEEL THREAT OF PCPN IS MINIMAL...AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ANY PCPN ON SAT WITH THIS PACKAGE. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANY RESPITE FROM THE STORMY WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS YET ANOTHER DEEP SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE SW U.S. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH FROM TX TO GA/FL SUN-MON. A 70-75KT LLJ ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM ALL THE WAY FROM EAST TX TO GA SUN NIGHT-MON AS THE SYSTEM TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND ROTATES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY BY MON. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT...SO TO SPEAK...WITH REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM IS A POTENTIAL WEDGE ACROSS OUR CWA...AT LEAST INITIALLY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD HELP STABILIZE THE AIR MASS LATE SUN-EARLY MON. MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SOME TSRA WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THE FIRST ROUND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...BY MON AFTERNOON...OUR CWA MOVES FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THE AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE UNDER THE THREAT FOR SEVERE. QPF IS A GREATER CONCERN WITH THE SUN-MON SYSTEM GIVEN THE TWO PRONGED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...NAMELY WARM FRONTAL PCPN SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MON. GFS/ECMWF QPF PROGGED AMOUNTS OF 3+ INCHES INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL AGGRAVATE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING AND LIKELY INITIATE NEW CONCERNS. WITH ONLY MP/CP AIR MASSES EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. CLOUDS AND PCPN MAY HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN SUN-MON...BUT MIN TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL GA EXPERIENCING FUEL MOISTURES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES NOT BEING OBSERVED ANYWHERE. MOST RH VALUES IN THE 28-35 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME. WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS THU AND RAIN EXPECTED FRI...CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. NO FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS PLANNED. && .AVIATION... STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY SPEW A FEW CIRRUS OVER THE AREA BY MORNING...BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET...BUT SHOULD DROP TO SUSTAINED 7-10KTS UNTIL SUNRISE WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. MAY STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A BIT OF TURBULENCE AT LOW LEVELS THROUGH 00Z. GENERALLY WSW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO SSW BY SUNRISE AS DEEPENING LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS STARTS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 43 73 55 71 55 / 0 0 20 60 60 ATLANTA 46 71 56 71 54 / 0 0 30 60 50 BLAIRSVILLE 39 68 50 66 49 / 0 0 30 70 60 CARTERSVILLE 41 71 55 71 49 / 0 0 30 70 50 COLUMBUS 47 75 57 76 59 / 0 0 30 60 50 GAINESVILLE 44 69 53 68 54 / 0 0 20 70 60 MACON 45 75 53 77 57 / 0 0 20 60 60 ROME 42 72 54 71 52 / 0 0 40 70 40 PEACHTREE CITY 40 72 55 72 54 / 0 0 30 60 50 VIDALIA 49 76 57 78 57 / 0 0 10 50 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 19/27