FNUS73 KAPX 091139
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOLI BURN...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
739 AM EDT THU APR 9 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON APRIL 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AT THE IGNITION SITE.
HOWEVER...THE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO CRITICAL LEVELS AT THE
IGNITION SITE TODAY...FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT
TURNING TO THE NORTH EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........49 AT IGNITION...MAX 52.
RH..................23 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9
                    MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 21
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6400-7600 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1300) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (1400).

TIME (EDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........37     30     34
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............49     51     49
RH..............23     20     22
20 FT WIND......NW 8   NW 8   NW 8
20 FT WIND GUST.20     20     20
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4
SMOKE DISP......1300   1400   1200

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 21.
RH..................MAX 88 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).

TIME (EDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
SKY (%).........34           23           33
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE         NONE         NONE
TEMP............44           34           26
RH..............27           51           78
20 FT WIND......NW 8G15      N 5G10       N 2G5
SMOKE DISP......1200         300          100

$$
FORECASTER...KEVIN SULLIVAN
REQUESTED BY...BSTEARNS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090409.LOLIB.01/APX