FNUS75 KBOU 091651 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK AERIAL...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1050 AM MDT THU APR 9 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY TOMORROW. EXPECT IT SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY NEAR THE DIVIDE THEN COULD BE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 1400 MAY BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CANNOT ELIMINATE THE CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNNOON LIGHT SHOWER...THOUGH AT THIS TIME EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN PARK. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....40. MIN HUMIDITY........45%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 13-23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN 9-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6000-7000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....24. MAX HUMIDITY........70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-13 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-6200 FT AGL UNTIL 0100. 1600-2400 FT AGL AFTER 0400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2100. POOR AFTER 0400. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....45. MIN HUMIDITY........37%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 8-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5800-6800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. GOOD AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ELK AERIAL. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/09-10 86 22 37 49 W 16 1 6408 W 23 130269 V 04/09-11 86 22 38 47 W 16 1 6832 W 22 131189 V 04/09-12 90 39 38 47 W 15 23 2 1 W10 7256 W 21 132110 V 04/09-13 90 39 39 46 W 14 1 7021 W 22 136185 V 04/09-14 90 39 39 45 W 13 1 6786 W 24 140260 V 04/09-15 93 39 40 46 W 12 12 2 1 NW14 6551 W 25 144335 V 04/09-16 93 39 39 47 W 10 1 6609 W 24 141156 V 04/09-17 93 39 39 49 W 10 1 6666 W 24 137977 V 04/09-18 93 30 38 51 W 9 9 2 1 NW18 6723 W 23 134799 V 04/09-19 93 30 38 52 W 8 1 6274 W 23 122907 V 04/09-20 93 30 37 52 W 8 1 5824 W 22 111016 V 04/09-21 93 30 36 52 W 8 8 2 1 NW30 5374 W 21 99125 G 04/09-22 93 30 35 54 SW 7 1 5280 W 22 99790 G 04/09-23 93 30 34 55 SW 7 1 5185 W 22 100456 V 04/10-00 48 0 32 57 SW 7 7 2 1 W23 5090 W 23 101122 V 04/10-01 48 0 31 59 SW 7 1 4463 W 22 84848 G 04/10-02 48 0 30 61 SW 7 1 3836 W 20 68574 G 04/10-03 48 0 28 63 W 6 6 2 1 W24 3209 W 18 52299 F 04/10-04 48 0 27 65 W 6 1 2449 W 16 38037 P 04/10-05 48 0 26 68 W 6 1 1689 W 14 23774 P 04/10-06 53 0 24 70 W 6 6 2 1 W25 929 W 12 9511 P 04/10-07 53 0 26 67 SW 5 1 1956 W 13 22182 P 04/10-08 53 0 28 60 SW 5 1 2738 W 13 31738 P 04/10-09 53 0 31 54 S 5 5 2 1 W25 3521 W 14 41293 F 04/10-10 53 0 35 47 S 6 1 4190 W 14 50246 F 04/10-11 53 0 38 42 S 7 1 4859 SW 14 59199 F 04/10-12 49 0 40 40 S 8 8 2 1 W22 5528 SW 14 68152 G 04/10-13 49 0 42 38 S 8 1 6061 SW 15 80645 G 04/10-14 49 0 43 37 S 7 1 6594 SW 16 93137 G 04/10-15 49 0 44 38 S 7 7 2 1 W30 7128 SW 17 105630 V 04/10-16 49 0 44 39 S 8 1 6570 SW 16 94196 G 04/10-17 49 0 43 42 S 9 1 6012 SW 16 82763 G 04/10-18 49 0 41 48 S 9 9 2 1 SW30 5454 S 15 71329 G 04/10-19 49 0 39 50 S 8 1 4349 S 14 54385 F 04/10-20 49 0 37 55 SE 6 1 3244 S 13 37441 P 04/10-21 49 0 33 62 SE 3 3 2 1 SW29 2138 S 12 20497 P 04/10-22 49 0 31 66 S 3 1 1551 S 9 14382 P 04/10-23 49 0 30 69 S 5 1 963 S 8 8268 P 04/11-00 72 0 29 71 S 5 5 2 1 SW20 375 S 7 2153 P 04/11-01 72 0 28 73 SW 5 1 323 S 6 1704 P 04/11-02 72 0 27 76 SW 3 1 270 SW 5 1256 P 04/11-03 72 0 27 77 SW 3 3 2 1 S13 217 SW 5 807 P 04/11-04 72 0 26 79 SW 3 1 250 SW 6 1264 P 04/11-05 72 0 26 79 S 3 1 283 S 7 1720 P 04/11-06 80 0 27 78 S 5 5 2 1 SE25 315 S 8 2177 P 04/11-07 80 0 27 77 S 5 1 461 S 8 3271 P 04/11-08 80 0 29 71 S 5 1 608 S 8 4365 P 04/11-09 80 0 32 63 S 6 6 2 1 S36 754 S 8 5460 P 04/11-10 80 0 35 55 S 8 1 2274 S 13 35741 P 04/11-11 80 0 38 50 SE 8 1 3795 S 16 66022 G 04/11-12 75 20 41 43 SE 9 9 2 1 SW48 5316 S 21 96302 G 04/11-13 75 20 42 41 S 8 1 5621 S 21 102576 V 04/11-14 75 20 44 39 S 8 1 5926 S 21 108849 V 04/11-15 75 20 44 39 SW 7 7 2 1 S44 6231 SW 21 115123 V 04/11-16 75 20 44 39 SW 5 1 6006 SW 18 99741 G 04/11-17 75 20 43 41 W 5 1 5780 SW 16 84360 G 04/11-18 71 34 41 45 W 3 3 2 1 S41 5555 SW 14 68979 G 04/11-19 71 34 39 47 W 3 1 5269 SW 13 57740 F 04/11-20 71 34 36 53 W 5 1 4983 SW 10 46502 F 04/11-21 71 34 32 61 W 6 6 2 1 S37 4698 SW 9 35264 P 04/11-22 71 34 29 67 W 7 1 3621 SW 9 28496 P 04/11-23 71 34 28 70 W 8 1 2543 SW 10 21729 P 04/12-00 71 34 26 73 W 9 9 2 1 S38 1466 W 12 14961 P 04/12-01 71 34 25 77 W 9 1 1244 W 10 11625 P 04/12-02 71 34 24 80 W 9 1 1021 W 9 8290 P 04/12-03 71 34 24 82 W 9 9 2 1 SW38 798 W 7 4955 P 04/12-04 71 34 23 83 W 9 1 797 W 6 4296 P 04/12-05 71 34 24 83 W 9 1 796 W 6 3637 P 04/12-06 84 42 24 77 W 9 9 2 1 SW32 795 W 5 2978 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DONNA GOVAN REASON FOR REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20090409.ELKAE.01/BOU