FNUS73 KJKL 091020 FWSJKL SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR WALLOW...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 620 AM EDT THU APR 9 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON APRIL 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY TO THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA. MIN RH WILL BE 26. THE ONLY LIMITING CONDITION MAY BE THE LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP THE DISPERSION INDEX LOW. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH...SPREADING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....51 AT IGNITION...MAX 69. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH. POP.................10 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....48. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........29 38 44 58 73 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............51 59 66 68 66 RH..............54 37 29 29 33 20 FT WIND......S 3 S 6 S 7 SW 6 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER AROUND MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS DAWN. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 54. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 74 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH. POP.................40 PERCENT. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0400...THEN 2. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........76 81 88 93 93 93 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............65 61 59 57 56 55 RH..............36 45 53 61 68 72 20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 6 S 6 S 7 S 8 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 5 5 5 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 68. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 59 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH. POP.................80 PERCENT. LAL.................3 UNTIL 1100...THEN 4 UNTIL 1300...THEN 5 UNTIL 1600...THEN 4. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 26 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....107. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........92 92 94 100 100 98 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............55 60 63 66 67 66 RH..............74 69 66 62 60 60 20 FT WIND......S 9 S 10 S 12 S 12 SW 12 SW 12 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...JACOBSON REQUESTED BY...ROBIN ACCIARDO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090409.BEARW.01/JKL