FNUS71 KBGM 131448 FWSBGM SPOT FORECAST FOR SATTERLY...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1048 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 EDT ON APRIL 13. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... DRY FUEL AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD IGNITION AND NATURAL SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL WINDS WILL INITIALLY TEND FROM THE NNE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS AT 20 FT WILL BE 5-10 MPH INITIALLY...THEN TREND SLOWER TO AROUND 5 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER FROM THE NORTH BEFORE NOON...THEN ALSO WEAKEN. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLY AFTER 5 OR 6 PM...WHEN WINDS MAY BECOME UP VALLEY FROM THE SE...BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK. IF THAT OCCURRS...SPEEDS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT THIN COVERAGE). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51. MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3900-4700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 13 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 3 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51. MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3900-4700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 13 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 3 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (4300-28800 KNOT-FT). TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............12 16 19 29 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................39 46 51 51 RH..................40 26 20 23 20 FT WIND..........NE 5 N 5 NW 4 NW 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)........3200 3200 4700 3900 TRANSPORT WIND......N 13 N 13 NW 8 NW 3 LAL.................1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 VRATE KT-FT/1000....29 29 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33. MAX HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 500-1800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 3 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 14 MPH LATE. SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33. MAX HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 500-1800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 3 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 14 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (4300-17700 KNOT-FT). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............34 42 51 63 72 71 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................50 45 41 38 35 34 RH..................25 35 44 52 59 61 20 FT WIND..........N 3 NE 2 NE 2 NE 1 E 2 SE 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)........3900 1800 1800 1000 900 900 TRANSPORT WIND......NW 3 E 3 E 3 SE 7 SE 10 SE 10 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 5 5 5 VRATE KT-FT/1000....4 4 4 4 18 18 $$ FORECASTER...BREWSTER REQUESTED BY...DAVID DISANTO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090413.SATTE.01/BGM