FNUS71 KPBZ 130810
FWSPBZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUZZARD SWAMP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
410 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A RISK OF SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........33 AT IGNITION...MAX 52.
RH..................44 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    5 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 2400-2900
                    FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM
SKY (%).........28     37     46     59     72     85
WEATHER COV.....                            S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............33     40     47     47     48     48
RH..............44     34     26     28     30     33
20 FT WIND......E 5    E 5    E 6    SE 6   SE 6   SE 6
20 FT WIND GUST.       10     15     10     10     20
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10     20     20
HAINES INDEX....4      4      5      5      5      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
                    FOG LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 34.
RH..................MAX 78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 10 TO 16 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 47.
RH..................MIN 66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
                    MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 16 TO 22 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...30
REQUESTED BY...GARY KOLESAR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090413.BUZZA.01/PBZ