FNUS75 KBOU 141449 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR TRUMBULL...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 847 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BURN SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...BUT LIMITED RAINFALL. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING BUT ONLY LIGHT RAIN. TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH EACH AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE DECENT SMOKE DISPERSION. THE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACROSS COLORADO LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-67. MIN HUMIDITY........10-15%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 14-20 MPH. SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE STORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 20-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-800 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 9800-10800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-33. MAX HUMIDITY........65-70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 11-17 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT...BECOMING POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50%) UNTIL 1500...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300. MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65. MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTH 15-25 MPH. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE STORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17-28 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 32-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3400-4400 FT BY 1000...THEN INCREASING TO 9000-10000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. COOLER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR TRUMBULL. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/14-08 51 0 35 49 SW 5 1 527 SW 7 3207 P 04/14-09 51 0 42 38 SW 6 6 2 1 W25 714 SW 7 4376 P 04/14-10 51 0 48 30 SW 7 1 3692 SW 12 57227 F 04/14-11 51 0 54 24 S 8 1 6670 SW 15 110078 V 04/14-12 59 10 59 20 S 10 10 2 2 W31 9648 SW 20 162928 E 04/14-13 59 10 64 17 S 13 2 10385 SW 22 196578 E 04/14-14 59 10 66 16 S 15 2 11121 SW 23 230228 E 04/14-15 59 20 65 16 S 16 25 2 1 SW26 11857 SW 25 263877 E 04/14-16 59 20 65 16 S 17 1 10433 SW 25 231425 E 04/14-17 59 20 63 18 S 17 1 9008 SW 25 198972 E 04/14-18 52 20 59 21 S 16 25 2 1 W24 7583 SW 25 166520 E 04/14-19 52 20 55 25 S 15 1 5403 SW 24 117262 V 04/14-20 52 20 49 33 S 13 1 3222 SW 22 68004 G 04/14-21 52 20 46 39 S 12 12 2 1 W30 1041 SW 21 18745 P 04/14-22 52 20 42 46 S 13 1 768 SW 20 13613 P 04/14-23 52 20 41 50 S 14 1 495 S 18 8480 P 04/15-00 52 20 40 55 S 15 24 2 1 SW47 221 S 17 3348 P 04/15-01 52 20 38 59 S 14 1 211 S 16 3064 P 04/15-02 52 20 37 62 S 13 1 201 S 16 2781 P 04/15-03 52 20 36 64 S 12 12 2 1 SW47 191 S 15 2497 P 04/15-04 52 20 34 67 S 10 1 194 S 15 2501 P 04/15-05 52 20 34 67 SW 10 1 197 SW 15 2505 P 04/15-06 58 0 36 62 SW 10 10 2 1 SW47 200 SW 15 2509 P 04/15-07 58 0 37 58 SW 15 1 664 SW 17 11671 P 04/15-08 58 0 39 53 SW 15 1 1128 SW 20 20833 P 04/15-09 58 0 43 45 SW 15 15 2 1 SW48 1592 SW 22 29995 P 04/15-10 58 0 48 37 SW 16 1 3057 SW 24 73178 G 04/15-11 58 0 52 32 S 18 1 4521 SW 28 116362 V 04/15-12 58 0 55 28 S 20 30 2 1 SW52 5985 SW 31 159545 E 04/15-13 58 10 58 26 S 21 2 7374 SW 32 209129 E 04/15-14 58 10 59 25 S 21 2 8763 S 33 258714 E 04/15-15 72 10 60 25 S 22 33 2 2 SW35 10153 S 35 308299 E 04/15-16 72 10 60 25 S 21 2 8742 S 33 257087 E 04/15-17 72 10 59 27 S 21 2 7332 SW 32 205874 E 04/15-18 72 10 55 30 S 20 31 2 2 SW38 5922 SW 30 154662 E 04/15-19 72 10 53 32 S 20 2 4491 SW 31 118219 V 04/15-20 72 20 49 38 S 18 1 3059 S 31 81776 G 04/15-21 72 20 44 47 S 18 30 2 1 S39 1628 S 32 45334 F 04/15-22 72 20 40 53 S 17 1 1178 S 28 31714 P 04/15-23 72 20 38 58 SW 16 1 727 S 23 18093 P 04/16-00 72 20 37 61 SW 15 24 2 1 S49 276 S 18 4473 P 04/16-01 72 20 35 65 SW 15 1 306 SW 20 5188 P 04/16-02 72 20 34 67 SW 14 1 336 SW 20 5904 P 04/16-03 72 20 33 67 SW 14 22 2 1 S45 365 SW 21 6619 P 04/16-04 72 20 33 68 SW 14 1 842 SW 22 16982 P 04/16-05 72 20 33 65 SW 13 1 1319 SW 23 27346 P 04/16-06 72 20 33 63 W 13 13 3 1 S55 1796 SW 24 37709 P 04/16-07 72 20 34 60 W 10 1 2855 SW 16 27637 P 04/16-08 72 20 35 58 NW 10 1 3913 SW 9 17565 P 04/16-09 72 20 37 52 N 8 8 3 1 S52 4972 SW 2 7492 P 04/16-10 72 20 40 45 N 8 1 5917 S 5 29474 P 04/16-11 72 20 43 41 NE 8 1 6862 SE 8 51457 F 04/16-12 72 20 45 37 NE 9 9 2 1 S38 7807 E 10 73439 G 04/16-13 72 30 46 35 NE 8 1 8678 E 13 98518 G 04/16-14 72 30 48 34 NE 7 1 9549 E 15 123598 V 04/16-15 78 30 48 35 NE 7 7 2 1 SE25 10420 SE 16 148677 V 04/16-16 78 30 48 35 NE 7 1 9778 SE 16 135893 V 04/16-17 78 30 47 36 N 7 1 9136 E 15 123109 V 04/16-18 78 30 46 39 N 8 8 2 1 SE30 8494 E 15 110325 V 04/16-19 78 30 44 42 N 9 1 7430 E 17 109304 V 04/16-20 78 40 42 47 N 10 1 6365 NE 21 108282 V 04/16-21 78 40 39 52 N 13 13 2 1 SE36 5301 NE 23 107260 V 04/16-22 78 40 37 58 N 12 1 5200 NE 23 103686 V 04/16-23 78 40 36 61 NE 10 1 5100 NE 23 100111 V 04/17-00 78 40 35 62 NE 10 10 2 1 SE46 4999 NE 22 96537 G 04/17-01 78 40 34 65 NE 10 1 4964 NE 20 83094 G 04/17-02 78 40 33 67 N 10 1 4928 N 16 69652 G 04/17-03 78 40 33 66 N 9 9 2 1 S32 4892 N 13 56210 F 04/17-04 78 40 32 67 N 9 1 4891 N 15 65951 G 04/17-05 78 40 32 66 N 8 1 4889 N 17 75692 G 04/17-06 76 40 33 65 N 7 7 2 1 SE15 4887 N 20 85432 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...KRIS HEINY REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090414.TRUMB.01/BOU