FNUS73 KAPX 151602 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR KNUTH...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1202 PM EDT WED APR 15 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1700 EDT ON APRIL 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A HUDSON BAY HIGH IS IN PLACE...AND AS A RESULT SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST WINDS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE. GIVEN THE SOUTH ASPECT...THE BURN AREA MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SHELTERED...WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS THAN THE NORTH-FACING ASPECTS. WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE...THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP THE IGNITION SITE A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN FURTHER INLAND. BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL BE LOW. THE WIND DIRECTION COULD TURN TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION IF THE LAKE BREEZE IS A LITTLE STRONGER. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 54. RH..................25 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 24 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 11 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 14 TO 17 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2400-4000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (700) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (800). TIME (EDT) 5PM SKY (%).........0 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............52 RH..............25 20 FT WIND DIR..NE 20 FT WIND SPD..10 20 FT WIND GUST.20 HAINES INDEX....5 SMOKE DISP......700 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 28. RH..................MAX 61 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 16 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............50 48 46 43 41 38 37 35 34 33 31 31 RH..............27 27 29 33 36 40 42 47 49 53 58 61 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 1 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 5 5 10 10 10 5 5 SMOKE DISP......500 200 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 57. RH..................MIN 23 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........0 0 0 0 0 0 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............31 34 47 56 57 54 RH..............61 56 34 24 23 27 20 FT WIND......NE 1 N 2 NE 4 NE 6 E 7 E 7 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 10 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...MSB/JH REQUESTED BY...BEN EBY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090415.KNUTH.01/APX