FNUS73 KAPX 161237
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR FLETCHER 34...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
837 AM EDT THU APR 16 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON APRIL 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH IS EXTREMELY DRY WITH THE
MINIMUM RELATIVE GETTING AS LOW AS 10-15 PERCENT TODAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT AS THE MIXING
HEIGHT RISES THE HAINES INDEX WILL INCREASE. BASED ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING AND THE EXPECTED MIXING TODAY THE HAINES INDEX WILL REACH
A 6 THIS AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........59 AT IGNITION...MAX 65.
RH..................17 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 14 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4600-5500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 6.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........0   0   0   0   0
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............59  60  62  63  63
RH..............17  15  14  14  14
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..4   4   4   4   4
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......400 400 300 300 300

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 27.
RH..................MAX 58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........0      0      0      0      0      0
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............62     57     46     38     35     31
RH..............14     16     27     42     52     58
20 FT WIND......N 4    N 4    N 1    NE 0   S 0    SW 0
20 FT WIND GUST.10     5

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ
REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090416.FLETC.01/APX