FNUS71 KBGM 171202 FWSBGM SPOT FORECAST FOR MONTEZUMA NWR - WILGOOSE...US FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 802 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 EDT ON APRIL 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 25 MPH OR MORE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE TEENS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT. ELSEWHERE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER... WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. FIRE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON SATURDAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUED LOW FUEL MOISTURES. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...LIMITING SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FIRE SPREAD. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MIN HUMIDITY........19 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND 15 MPH LATE. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6300-7100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 17 TO 24 MPH...INCREASING TO 29 TO 33 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (22000 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (98200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............3 4 4 3 4 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................45 55 63 67 68 RH..................51 34 23 20 19 20 FT WIND..........W 5 W 6 W 8 NW 9 W 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)........1200 4100 4100 7100 6300 TRANSPORT WIND......W 21 NW 24 NW 24 NW 29 NW 33 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 5 5 5 5 VRATE KT-FT/1000....22 22 22 98 98 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42. MAX HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-900 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 28 TO 33 MPH. SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (98200 KNOT-FT)...DECREASING TO GOOD (44900 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............4 4 15 30 45 54 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................66 60 54 50 46 44 RH..................20 26 36 48 60 70 20 FT WIND..........W 9 W 5 W 6 W 6 W 6 W 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)........6300 900 900 400 400 400 TRANSPORT WIND......NW 33 W 31 W 31 NW 31 NW 30 NW 30 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 4 4 4 4 4 VRATE KT-FT/1000....98 98 98 98 45 45 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67. MIN HUMIDITY........26-33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6100-6900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 28 MPH. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO GOOD (44900-57700 KNOT-FT). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............65 74 75 74 75 78 WEATHER COV......... S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR TEMP................42 44 53 60 66 67 RH..................76 73 52 42 34 33 20 FT WIND..........W 6 W 6 W 6 W 7 NW 6 NW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)........300 2000 2000 4900 6900 6900 TRANSPORT WIND......NW 28 NW 26 NW 26 W 25 W 26 W 26 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....45 45 45 45 58 58 $$ FORECASTER...MUNDSCHENK REQUESTED BY...LINDA CHORBA ZIEMBA WILDLIFE BIOLOGIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090417.MONTE.01/BGM