FNUS73 KAPX 181336 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SUMMERS RD...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 936 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON APRIL 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY RELEASING ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE BURN AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT IGNITION TO NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY 6 PM...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE EVENING. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT CERTAIN. BE ALERT THAT WINDS COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SOONER THAN EXPECTED. INCREASED CLOUDCOVER...ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. BUT DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........64 AT IGNITION...MAX 66. RH..................23 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 20 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 11 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 23 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 9 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4300-6500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1100) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1100). TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........66 66 66 75 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............63 63 64 64 RH..............23 22 20 20 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW N 20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.17 16 15 13 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 SMOKE DISP......11001000800 600 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 36. RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 9 TO 18 MPH IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST 21 TO 23 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(100). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........78 85 85 85 76 76 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............62 56 48 43 40 39 RH..............25 43 58 70 76 79 20 FT WIND......NE 7 NE 9 NE 10 NE 10 NE 12 NE 12 20 FT WIND GUST.14 17 18 15 20 20 SMOKE DISP......400 200 100 200 400 300 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 49. RH..................MIN 47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 16 TO 23 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-1300 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX GOOD(300). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........76 79 79 84 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............38 40 46 48 RH..............82 73 55 47 20 FT WIND......NE 7G20 NE 10G25 E 12G25 E 11G25 SMOKE DISP......300 300 300 200 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF HALBLAUB/BRIAN ADAM REQUESTED BY...JOE ALYEA TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090418.SUMME.02/APX