FNUS73 KAPX 181421 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR UNIT 10...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1021 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 EDT ON APRIL 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY RELEASING ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE BURN AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY IGNITION TIME...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE EVENING AND REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST. INCREASED CLOUDCOVER...ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. BUT DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME SPRINKLES...OR VERY LIGHT RAIN...MAY MOVE THROUGH THE BURN ARE THIS EVENING. WITH THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TO OCCUR. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 66. RH..................MIN 20 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 13 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6700 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1200). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........62 51 51 53 66 66 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............47 47 59 63 64 65 RH..............47 49 35 26 22 20 20 FT WIND......W 4 W 4 W 7 W 8 NW 8 NW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.7 5 11 15 17 15 SMOKE DISP......0 0 500 1100 1200 1100 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........63 AT IGNITION...MIN 39. RH..................22 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MAX 74 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 8 TO 15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 17 TO 22 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1200-2300 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500) AT IGNITION. MIN...POOR (100). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........78 68 90 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............63 61 58 52 46 40 42 43 45 43 41 39 RH..............22 26 30 46 56 70 65 62 58 63 68 74 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NE NE NE NE NE E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 FT WIND GUST.14 15 17 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 SMOKE DISP......500 300 100 100 100 200 200 300 300 300 300 300 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 50. RH..................MIN 47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 16 TO 23 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1300 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX GOOD(300). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........77 80 80 85 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............39 42 47 49 RH..............74 67 53 48 20 FT WIND......E 9G20 E 10G25 E 12G25 E 11G25 SMOKE DISP......300 300 300 200 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF HALBLAUB/BRIAN ADAM REQUESTED BY...PAUL ROOSE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090418.UNIT1.01/APX