FNUS73 KAPX 182016
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR UNIT 10...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
416 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 EDT ON APRIL 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT REFERENCED IN THE THIS MORNINGS FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE BURN SITE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN REMOVED.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........64 AT IGNITION...MIN 38.
RH..................34 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MAX 85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 11 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING
                    TO THE EAST 6 TO 10 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 13
                    TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1300-1800
                    FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MIN...FAIR (200).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........57  57  70  70  70  85  85  85  85  85  85  85
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............64  58  52  48  44  40  42  43  45  43  41  39
RH..............34  42  54  63  73  85  76  73  65  70  76  82
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..11  10  10   9   9   8   8   7   7   8   8   9
20 FT WIND GUST.18  16  16  15  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20
SMOKE DISP......600 400 300 200 200 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 52.
RH..................MIN 35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 10 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 17 TO 24 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(700).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........85        81        81        77
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TEMP............39        40        47        51
RH..............82        67        53        42
20 FT WIND......E 9G20    E 9G20    E 10G25   E 11G25
SMOKE DISP......200       300       600       700

$$

FORECASTER...JEFF HALBLAUB / BRIAN ADAM
REQUESTED BY...PAUL ROOSE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090418.UNIT1.01/APX