FNUS75 KBOU 220414 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUE VALLEY RANCH...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1014 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE IS PRETTY WEAK SO ANY ENHANCEMENT TO THE NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME INCREASED MOISTURE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65. MIN HUMIDITY........20-30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST AROUND 4 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST 8-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-800 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 3800-4800 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 8400-9400 FT AGL UNTIL 1500...THEN 9800-10800 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 7600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35. MAX HUMIDITY........60-70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 8-14 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN UP TO 4 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 200 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-66. MIN HUMIDITY........18-27%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH UP TO 4 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN WEST 10-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 4600-5600 FT AGL UNTIL 1300...THEN 8000-9000 FT AGL UNTIL 1500...THEN 9800-10800 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 7600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .SUNDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BLUE VALLEY RANCH. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/21-21 10 0 43 45 W 2 2 2 1 NW15 271 W 5 985 P 04/21-22 10 0 40 54 SW 2 1 239 W 3 815 P 04/21-23 10 0 38 62 S 3 1 207 SW 3 644 P 04/22-00 3 0 36 68 S 3 3 2 1 W14 176 S 3 474 P 04/22-01 3 0 35 73 S 3 1 170 S 3 468 P 04/22-02 3 0 33 75 SE 3 1 164 S 3 462 P 04/22-03 3 0 33 76 SE 3 3 2 1 W20 158 S 3 457 P 04/22-04 3 0 32 75 SE 3 1 168 S 3 416 P 04/22-05 3 0 32 71 SE 2 1 178 S 2 376 P 04/22-06 18 0 33 67 SE 2 2 3 1 W29 187 S 2 335 P 04/22-07 18 0 34 63 CALM 1 393 S 2 611 P 04/22-08 18 0 37 57 CALM 1 599 S 2 886 P 04/22-09 18 0 41 49 CALM 1 2 1 W26 805 CALM 1162 P 04/22-10 18 0 47 40 S 2 1 3098 SW 6 32942 P 04/22-11 18 0 51 35 SW 3 1 5391 W 10 64722 G 04/22-12 48 5 54 31 W 5 5 3 1 W24 7685 W 15 96501 G 04/22-13 48 5 56 28 W 7 1 8827 W 16 123737 V 04/22-14 48 5 58 26 W 8 1 9969 W 17 150972 E 04/22-15 48 5 59 25 W 10 10 3 1 W23 11111 W 18 178207 E 04/22-16 48 5 59 25 W 13 1 9330 W 18 150512 E 04/22-17 48 5 58 27 W 14 1 7549 W 18 122816 V 04/22-18 48 5 55 29 W 14 22 3 1 W24 5768 W 18 95121 G 04/22-19 48 5 53 30 W 12 1 3932 W 15 63932 G 04/22-20 48 2 49 34 SW 8 1 2096 W 10 32742 P 04/22-21 48 2 45 41 SW 5 5 4 1 W22 260 W 7 1553 P 04/22-22 48 2 42 47 S 3 1 230 SW 6 1224 P 04/22-23 48 2 40 51 S 3 1 199 SW 5 896 P 04/23-00 24 0 38 55 S 3 3 5 1 W23 168 S 3 567 P 04/23-01 24 0 36 58 S 3 1 166 S 3 551 P 04/23-02 24 0 35 59 S 2 1 164 S 3 535 P 04/23-03 24 0 34 59 S 2 2 3 1 W31 163 S 3 519 P 04/23-04 24 0 34 59 S 2 1 166 S 3 493 P 04/23-05 24 0 34 57 S 2 1 170 S 3 467 P 04/23-06 26 0 34 55 SE 2 2 3 1 W29 174 S 3 441 P 04/23-07 26 0 36 55 S 2 1 344 SW 5 1667 P 04/23-08 26 0 39 49 SW 2 1 514 SW 6 2894 P 04/23-09 26 0 44 42 SW 3 3 4 1 W26 685 SW 7 4120 P 04/23-10 26 0 49 35 SW 6 1 2404 SW 10 31046 P 04/23-11 26 0 53 30 W 8 1 4124 W 14 57971 F 04/23-12 47 0 56 26 W 10 10 3 1 W29 5844 W 17 84896 G 04/23-13 47 0 59 24 W 13 1 7630 W 18 131856 V 04/23-14 47 0 61 22 W 14 1 9416 W 21 178816 E 04/23-15 47 0 62 20 W 14 22 3 1 W28 11202 W 23 225776 E 04/23-16 47 0 62 20 W 14 1 9378 W 23 185836 E 04/23-17 47 0 60 21 W 13 1 7555 SW 22 145896 V 04/23-18 47 0 58 26 SW 13 13 3 1 W31 5731 SW 21 105955 V 04/23-19 47 0 56 29 SW 12 1 3930 SW 18 71913 G 04/23-20 45 0 51 35 SW 10 1 2130 SW 16 37871 P 04/23-21 45 0 46 42 SW 9 9 3 1 W36 330 SW 14 3828 P 04/23-22 45 0 43 48 S 8 1 276 SW 12 2960 P 04/23-23 45 0 41 52 S 7 1 222 S 10 2092 P 04/24-00 45 0 39 56 S 6 6 3 1 SW38 167 S 8 1224 P 04/24-01 45 0 38 59 S 5 1 168 S 8 1095 P 04/24-02 45 0 36 62 S 3 1 168 SW 7 966 P 04/24-03 45 0 36 63 S 2 2 3 1 SW37 168 SW 6 838 P 04/24-04 45 0 35 64 SE 2 1 184 SW 6 831 P 04/24-05 45 0 35 63 SE 2 1 201 S 5 824 P 04/24-06 48 0 35 67 SE 2 2 2 1 SW58 217 S 5 817 P 04/24-07 48 0 37 66 SE 5 1 744 S 9 10278 P 04/24-08 48 0 40 60 S 7 1 1271 SW 14 19739 P 04/24-09 48 0 44 52 S 10 10 2 1 SW53 1797 SW 18 29200 P 04/24-10 48 0 49 41 S 14 1 3340 SW 25 91690 G 04/24-11 48 0 52 33 SW 16 1 4882 SW 32 154179 E 04/24-12 55 5 56 28 SW 18 30 3 1 SW38 6424 SW 39 216668 E 04/24-13 55 5 58 25 SW 20 1 7406 SW 40 258726 E 04/24-14 55 5 59 24 SW 20 1 8387 SW 41 300783 E 04/24-15 55 5 60 23 SW 20 31 2 1 SW53 9369 SW 43 342841 E 04/24-16 55 5 60 23 SW 20 1 8318 SW 39 291169 E 04/24-17 55 5 59 25 SW 18 1 7267 SW 37 239498 E 04/24-18 77 5 56 29 SW 17 28 2 1 SW54 6216 SW 35 187827 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...R COUSINEAU REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090422.BLUEV.01/BOU