FNUS75 KBOU 220441 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR MOUNT FALCON SLASH PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1042 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE IS PRETTY WEAK SO ANY ENHANCEMENT TO THE NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME INCREASED MOISTURE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1300...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300. MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-72. MIN HUMIDITY........20-30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 17-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-600 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 4200 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 7800 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 12000-13000 FT AGL UNTIL 1500...THEN 13400-14400 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 11800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45. MAX HUMIDITY........40-50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 11-17 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 200-600 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75. MIN HUMIDITY........15-25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-400 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 3800-4800 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 8600-9600 FT AGL UNTIL 1400...THEN 12800-13800 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 10400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR MOUNT FALCON SLASH PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/21-22 29 0 49 43 W 15 1 408 W 14 5014 P 04/21-23 29 0 48 45 W 15 1 320 W 15 3995 P 04/22-00 3 0 46 47 W 15 24 4 1 W10 231 W 15 2977 P 04/22-01 3 0 45 48 W 15 1 217 W 15 2792 P 04/22-02 3 0 44 49 W 15 1 203 W 15 2607 P 04/22-03 3 0 44 49 W 15 24 4 1 W10 189 W 15 2422 P 04/22-04 3 0 43 49 W 15 1 195 W 14 2344 P 04/22-05 3 0 43 47 W 16 1 200 W 13 2266 P 04/22-06 16 0 44 45 W 15 24 4 1 W17 205 W 13 2188 P 04/22-07 16 0 45 44 W 12 1 349 W 10 2463 P 04/22-08 16 0 47 40 W 8 1 493 W 8 2737 P 04/22-09 16 0 51 35 W 6 6 3 1 NW22 637 W 6 3012 P 04/22-10 16 0 56 29 W 6 1 4212 W 9 61860 G 04/22-11 16 0 59 25 W 8 1 7788 W 14 120709 V 04/22-12 55 10 62 22 NW 10 10 3 2 W22 11363 W 18 179557 E 04/22-13 55 10 64 21 NW 10 2 12468 W 18 202019 E 04/22-14 55 10 65 20 NW 12 2 13572 W 18 224481 E 04/22-15 55 10 66 20 NW 12 12 3 2 W17 14677 W 20 246942 E 04/22-16 55 10 66 20 W 13 2 13262 W 21 232643 E 04/22-17 55 10 65 21 W 13 2 11847 W 22 218345 E 04/22-18 55 10 63 22 W 13 13 3 2 W24 10432 W 23 204046 E 04/22-19 55 10 61 25 W 12 2 7175 W 21 139128 V 04/22-20 55 9 57 28 W 10 1 3918 W 18 74209 G 04/22-21 55 9 53 32 W 9 9 3 1 NW 9 661 W 16 9291 P 04/22-22 55 9 50 34 W 10 1 517 W 15 7048 P 04/22-23 55 9 48 34 W 12 1 373 W 14 4804 P 04/23-00 24 0 47 35 W 13 13 5 1 W13 230 W 13 2560 P 04/23-01 24 0 46 37 W 13 1 206 W 14 2370 P 04/23-02 24 0 44 38 W 14 1 183 W 14 2180 P 04/23-03 24 0 44 39 W 14 22 5 1 W16 160 W 14 1990 P 04/23-04 24 0 43 41 W 15 1 158 W 15 1976 P 04/23-05 24 0 43 40 W 15 1 156 W 15 1962 P 04/23-06 21 0 44 40 W 15 24 3 1 W14 154 W 15 1947 P 04/23-07 21 0 45 39 W 13 1 230 W 15 2882 P 04/23-08 21 0 48 36 W 10 1 305 W 15 3817 P 04/23-09 21 0 52 30 W 9 9 4 1 W 7 380 W 14 4752 P 04/23-10 21 0 57 25 W 10 1 2925 W 15 38799 P 04/23-11 21 0 60 22 W 12 1 5471 W 15 72847 G 04/23-12 61 0 63 19 W 13 13 6 1 W 8 8016 W 15 106895 V 04/23-13 61 0 65 17 W 13 1 10206 W 15 134229 V 04/23-14 61 0 67 16 W 13 1 12395 W 15 161563 E 04/23-15 61 0 68 16 W 13 13 5 1 W13 14585 W 15 188897 E 04/23-16 61 0 68 16 W 12 1 12468 W 16 167113 E 04/23-17 61 0 67 16 W 10 1 10351 W 16 145328 V 04/23-18 61 0 64 21 SW 12 12 5 1 W14 8234 W 17 123544 V 04/23-19 61 0 62 25 SW 12 1 5648 W 16 84467 G 04/23-20 45 0 59 30 SW 12 1 3063 W 16 45391 F 04/23-21 45 0 54 36 SW 12 12 6 1 W16 478 W 15 6315 P 04/23-22 45 0 52 40 W 12 1 377 W 15 4895 P 04/23-23 45 0 50 43 W 12 1 277 W 14 3474 P 04/24-00 45 0 48 45 W 12 12 5 1 W16 177 W 14 2054 P 04/24-01 45 0 47 48 W 13 1 170 W 15 2134 P 04/24-02 45 0 46 49 W 14 1 163 W 16 2213 P 04/24-03 45 0 45 50 W 14 22 5 1 SW22 156 W 17 2293 P 04/24-04 45 0 44 50 W 15 1 172 W 18 2733 P 04/24-05 45 0 44 48 W 15 1 189 W 20 3173 P 04/24-06 60 0 45 46 W 15 24 3 1 SW16 206 W 21 3613 P 04/24-07 60 0 46 45 W 15 1 372 W 20 6455 P 04/24-08 60 0 49 42 W 15 1 539 W 20 9297 P 04/24-09 60 0 52 37 W 14 22 4 1 SW20 705 SW 20 12139 P 04/24-10 60 0 57 30 W 14 1 2882 SW 22 62693 G 04/24-11 60 0 60 25 SW 13 1 5058 SW 24 113247 V 04/24-12 60 5 63 21 SW 13 13 4 1 SW23 7235 SW 26 163802 E 04/24-13 60 5 65 20 SW 13 1 8119 SW 28 192552 E 04/24-14 60 5 66 18 SW 13 1 9003 SW 28 221302 E 04/24-15 60 5 67 18 SW 13 13 3 1 SW31 9887 SW 29 250052 E 04/24-16 60 5 67 18 SW 13 1 9464 SW 30 241473 E 04/24-17 60 5 66 19 SW 13 1 9041 SW 30 232893 E 04/24-18 58 5 63 22 SW 13 13 3 1 SW40 8618 SW 30 224314 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...KEITH BOL REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090422.MOUNT.01/BOU