FNUS75 KBOU 220431 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR YEGGE ROAD SHADAE FUEL BREAK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1031 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE IS PRETTY WEAK SO ANY ENHANCEMENT TO THE NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERN WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME INCREASED MOISTURE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1300...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300. MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-70. MIN HUMIDITY........20-30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 14000-15000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45. MAX HUMIDITY........45-55%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 11-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......12600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 200-600 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-72. MIN HUMIDITY........15-25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-400 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 3800 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 7200 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 11000-12000 FT AGL UNTIL 1400...THEN 14400-15400 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 12600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR YEGGE ROAD SHADAE FUEL BREAK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 04/21-22 31 0 48 41 W 15 1 404 W 14 4657 P 04/21-23 31 0 47 44 W 15 1 302 W 14 3547 P 04/22-00 3 0 46 45 W 15 24 4 1 W13 200 W 14 2437 P 04/22-01 3 0 44 47 W 15 1 188 W 14 2257 P 04/22-02 3 0 43 48 W 14 1 175 W 14 2076 P 04/22-03 3 0 43 48 W 14 22 4 1 W14 163 W 14 1896 P 04/22-04 3 0 42 48 W 14 1 167 W 13 1870 P 04/22-05 3 0 42 47 W 14 1 170 W 13 1843 P 04/22-06 16 0 43 45 W 14 22 4 1 W20 174 W 12 1817 P 04/22-07 16 0 44 44 W 12 1 773 W 10 5338 P 04/22-08 16 0 47 40 W 8 1 1372 W 9 8860 P 04/22-09 16 0 50 35 W 6 6 3 1 NW23 1972 W 7 12381 P 04/22-10 16 0 55 29 W 6 1 5620 W 12 77235 G 04/22-11 16 0 58 25 W 8 1 9269 W 15 142089 V 04/22-12 55 10 61 22 W 10 10 4 2 W22 12918 W 18 206943 E 04/22-13 55 10 63 21 W 12 2 13960 W 20 233776 E 04/22-14 55 10 64 20 W 12 2 15001 W 20 260610 E 04/22-15 55 10 65 19 W 13 13 4 2 W17 16043 W 21 287443 E 04/22-16 55 10 65 19 W 14 2 14870 W 21 269592 E 04/22-17 55 10 64 20 W 14 2 13698 W 21 251741 E 04/22-18 55 10 62 22 W 14 22 4 2 W23 12525 W 22 233890 E 04/22-19 55 10 60 24 W 13 2 8576 W 20 158935 E 04/22-20 55 9 56 27 W 13 1 4626 W 17 83981 G 04/22-21 55 9 52 32 W 12 12 4 1 NW 9 676 W 15 9027 P 04/22-22 55 9 49 33 W 12 1 518 W 15 6774 P 04/22-23 55 9 48 35 W 13 1 360 W 14 4521 P 04/23-00 24 0 46 36 W 13 13 5 1 W14 202 W 13 2268 P 04/23-01 24 0 45 38 W 13 1 183 W 13 2096 P 04/23-02 24 0 44 40 W 14 1 165 W 14 1925 P 04/23-03 24 0 43 41 W 14 22 6 1 W16 146 W 14 1753 P 04/23-04 24 0 42 42 W 14 1 144 W 14 1714 P 04/23-05 24 0 43 42 W 14 1 142 W 14 1674 P 04/23-06 21 0 43 41 W 14 22 4 1 W13 139 W 14 1635 P 04/23-07 21 0 44 40 W 13 1 230 W 14 2778 P 04/23-08 21 0 47 35 W 12 1 320 W 14 3922 P 04/23-09 21 0 51 31 W 10 10 5 1 W 7 410 W 14 5065 P 04/23-10 21 0 56 25 W 10 1 3782 W 14 44561 F 04/23-11 21 0 60 21 W 12 1 7153 W 14 84057 G 04/23-12 62 0 63 18 W 13 13 6 1 W 8 10524 W 14 123553 V 04/23-13 62 0 65 17 W 14 1 12225 W 14 148599 V 04/23-14 62 0 66 16 W 14 1 13926 W 14 173645 E 04/23-15 62 0 67 15 W 14 22 5 1 W13 15628 W 15 198690 E 04/23-16 62 0 67 15 W 13 1 14105 W 15 185994 E 04/23-17 62 0 66 16 W 12 1 12583 W 16 173298 E 04/23-18 62 0 64 20 SW 12 12 5 1 W14 11060 W 17 160602 E 04/23-19 62 0 62 24 W 12 1 7541 W 16 109278 V 04/23-20 45 0 58 29 W 12 1 4022 W 16 57954 F 04/23-21 45 0 54 35 W 12 12 5 1 W16 504 W 15 6630 P 04/23-22 45 0 51 39 W 12 1 393 W 15 5071 P 04/23-23 45 0 49 42 W 12 1 282 W 14 3513 P 04/24-00 45 0 47 44 W 12 12 5 1 SW17 171 W 13 1954 P 04/24-01 45 0 46 46 W 12 1 162 W 14 1994 P 04/24-02 45 0 45 48 W 13 1 153 W 15 2033 P 04/24-03 45 0 44 48 W 14 22 5 1 SW24 145 W 16 2073 P 04/24-04 45 0 43 49 W 14 1 157 W 17 2415 P 04/24-05 45 0 44 48 W 15 1 170 W 18 2758 P 04/24-06 57 0 44 46 W 15 24 3 1 SW15 182 W 20 3101 P 04/24-07 57 0 45 45 W 16 1 485 W 21 8935 P 04/24-08 57 0 48 42 W 15 1 787 W 21 14769 P 04/24-09 57 0 52 37 W 15 24 4 1 SW20 1090 SW 22 20603 P 04/24-10 57 0 56 29 SW 15 1 3348 SW 23 75210 G 04/24-11 57 0 59 24 SW 15 1 5606 SW 25 129817 V 04/24-12 59 5 62 20 SW 15 24 4 1 SW23 7864 SW 26 184424 E 04/24-13 59 5 64 18 SW 14 1 8923 SW 28 215297 E 04/24-14 59 5 65 17 SW 14 1 9982 SW 29 246171 E 04/24-15 59 5 66 17 SW 14 22 3 1 SW33 11041 SW 29 277044 E 04/24-16 59 5 66 17 SW 14 1 10571 SW 30 270725 E 04/24-17 59 5 65 18 SW 15 1 10100 SW 30 264406 E 04/24-18 56 5 62 21 SW 15 24 3 1 SW43 9630 SW 31 258087 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...SCOTT HALLADAY REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090422.YEGGE.01/BOU