FNUS75 KGJT 221519
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CARL S HOLE...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
919 AM MDT WED APR 22 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON APRIL 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS TODAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SLIGHTLY
INCREASED INSTABILITY. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND THURSDAY...ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON BUILDUP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE A
THREAT BOTH AFTERNOONS. GRADIENT SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.


.TODAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED VIRGA POSSIBLE IN THE
                    LATE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME AND BECOMING WEST
                    BY 1230 AND INCREASING TO WEST 8-12 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    NEAR ANY VIRGA.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........48-53%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLY 3-6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (BELOW 10000 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...GARNER HARRIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090422.CARLS.01/GJT