FNUS75 KRIW 221356
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEARTOOTH FACE...WY-SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
756 AM MDT WED APR 22 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON APRIL 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AS ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE FIRE SITE. THIS ZONAL FLOW
WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TODAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM BEFORE THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW USHERS IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER FOR
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EXISTS FOR THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH FROM MONTANA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE FIRE SITE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...JONES

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-15 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST-SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO BETWEEN 9000 AND 10000 FT AGL
                    BETWEEN 1400 AND 1600.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST-SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING EXCELLENT
                    BY 1400.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-53.
MAX HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WIND 12 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST-SOUTHWEST 24 TO 34 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 8000 FT AGL UNTIL 1800...THEN BECOMING
                    LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL BETWEEN 1900 AND 2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST-SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH UNTIL 1800...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH BY 2100.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1800...THEN BECOMING POOR
                    BY 2100.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) WITH A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0900. ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-64.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 14 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN LAL 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 7000-8000 FT AGL BY
                    1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING EXCELLENT
                    BY 1400.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...TURNING COLDER. SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MUCH COLDER. RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 30. HIGHS AROUND 40. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...JONES
REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090422.BEART.01/RIW