FNUS75 KRIW 221533
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR MOSS RANCH...CODY DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
933 AM MDT WED APR 22 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MDT ON APRIL 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS PROVIDED WARM WEATHER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS IS SHIFTING EAST ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FIRE SITE TODAY. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
BEFORE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW USHERS IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH FROM MONTANA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO
THE FIRE SITE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...JONES

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) BY 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND 9 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    AROUND 22 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER 1300.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST-SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO AROUND 9000 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST-SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT BY 1400.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-48.
MAX HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND 9 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. THEN
                    DECREASING TO 5 TO 9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 7500 FT AGL UNTIL 1800...THEN BECOMING
                    LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL BY 2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL 1800...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1800...THEN BECOMING POOR
                    BY 2100.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) WITH A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-66.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 25 MPH BY 1300. GRADUALLY SHIFT
                    TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN 1500 AND 1700.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN LAL 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    GRADUALLY RISING TO AROUND 6000-7000 FT AGL
                    BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST-SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING VERY GOOD
                    BY 1400.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY EARLY IN THE
EVENING. COLDER. SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL
MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MUCH COLDER. RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...JONES
REQUESTED BY...JACK MONONI
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090422.MOSSR.01/RIW