FNUS73 KAPX 231304 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR HILL TOP...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 904 AM EDT THU APR 23 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON APRIL 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE TERRAIN TO THE NORTH WILL BE AN ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE THAT WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT THE WINDS GRADUALLY BY EARLY EVENING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE BURN AREA. OTHERWISE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 5-8 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 10 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IF TEMPERATURES INCREASE PAST 60 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........53 AT IGNITION...MAX 60. RH..................24 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 20 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4000-4500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (600). TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........42 42 42 50 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............53 54 55 57 RH..............26 25 24 22 20 FT WIND DIR..W SW SW S 20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 6 7 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 15 SMOKE DISP......400 400 500 600 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 46. RH..................MAX 69 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 18 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-600 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........68 75 75 75 70 70 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............55 51 48 47 47 47 RH..............25 32 42 49 58 63 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 7 S 7 S 8 S 9 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 SMOKE DISP......700 600 200 100 100 0 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 74. RH..................MIN 44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1900). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........50 67 71 50 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............48 52 63 73 RH..............65 69 58 46 20 FT WIND......S 9G15 S 9G15 S 10G15 S 11G20 SMOKE DISP......0 200 600 1500 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF LUTZ REQUESTED BY...PAUL ROOSE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090423.HILLT.01/APX