FNUS73 KFGF 231509 FWSFGF SPOT FORECAST FOR BLAZING STAR...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1009 AM CDT THU APR 23 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CDT ON APRIL 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE WINDS WILL COMBINE TO HELP CREATE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 25 PERCENT. FURTHERMORE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD DROP MORE PRECIPITATION AND ALSO CREATE ERRATIC WINDS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE BURN SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THEN INCREASE AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS CLOUDY...WETTER...BREEZY FROM THE NORTH...AND MUCH COOLER. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81. MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-4100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 14 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........47 54 61 WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............72 76 78 RH..............34 32 32 20 FT WIND......S 17 SW 15 NW 12 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 15 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45. MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH 25 TO 31 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 35 TO 38 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........68 75 82 87 88 86 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............77 68 59 53 48 44 RH..............33 43 56 66 71 79 20 FT WIND......N 9 N 10 N 14 N 17 N 17 N 17 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 25 25 25 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-49. MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100-4800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........NORTH 26 TO 35 MPH DECREASING TO 18 TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........85 87 89 91 91 91 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............42 43 44 45 46 46 RH..............82 76 76 73 68 65 20 FT WIND......N 17 N 18 N 20 N 20 N 18 N 17 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 25 25 $$ FORECASTER...GROCHOCINSKI REQUESTED BY...MATT MECKLENBURG TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090423.BLAZI.01/FGF