FNUS73 KFGF 231638 FWSFGF SPOT FORECAST FOR GLACIAL RIDGE...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1138 AM CDT THU APR 23 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE WINDS WILL COMBINE TO HELP CREATE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 30 PERCENT. FURTHERMORE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD DROP MORE PRECIPITATION AND ALSO CREATE ERRATIC WINDS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE BURN SITE MID THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THEN INCREASE AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS CLOUDY...WETTER...BREEZY FROM THE NORTH...AND MUCH COOLER. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75. MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-3900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 16 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH. TIME (CDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........45 51 59 67 74 WEATHER COV..... ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............56 64 69 72 72 RH..............48 46 37 34 35 20 FT WIND......S 16 S 16 S 14 S 10 NW 10 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 20 15 15 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45. MAX HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-4400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING WINDS........NORTH 22 TO 29 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 38 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........78 84 89 91 90 89 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............72 64 56 51 47 44 RH..............35 44 55 63 68 73 20 FT WIND......N 12 N 13 N 14 N 15 N 16 N 16 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 20 20 20 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48. MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-4100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400-5200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........NORTH 23 TO 32 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 22 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........87 88 89 89 87 84 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............42 43 44 44 45 45 RH..............76 73 70 70 65 65 20 FT WIND......N 17 N 17 N 17 N 17 N 16 N 14 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 20 20 $$ FORECASTER...GROCHOCINSKI REQUESTED BY...PATRICK WAGNER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090423.GLACI.01/FGF