FNUS75 KGJT 231818
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR FONCE RX...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1218 PM MDT THU APR 23 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 MDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A NORTHWEST PACIFIC TROUGH COMES ONSHORE...AND
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY.
THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS THAT WILL OVERCOME
TERRAIN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE-BASED INVERSION SETS UP
WITH SUNSET. FRIDAY...EXPECT STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS AS THE TROUGH
WORKS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE BURN SITE BETWEEN 1500 AND 1700. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THEN DIMINISH.


.THIS AFTERNOON (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%)...BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%) AFTER 1500. SOME VIRGA
                    DEVELOPING AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO
                    15 TO 20 MPH AFTER 1300 WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT BY 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 33 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS
                    UNTIL 2200...THEN DECREASING TO 4-8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2200...THEN POOR (13000 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FEET AGL UNTIL 2200...THEN LOWERING TO
                    1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 MPH UNTIL 2200...THEN SOUTHWEST
                    10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 15-20 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH BY MID
                    TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
                    10-15 MPH AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GRADUALLY
                    DIMINISH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT BY LATE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...DALE BECKERMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090423.FONCE.01/GJT