FNUS72 KJAX 231132
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR FALLING CREEK...USDA - FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
732 AM EDT THU APR 23 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS RESULTED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER REGION. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO THIS MORNING. VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S. THESE WARM AFTERNOON READINGS WILL INTERACT WITH LOWERING
DEW-POINT VALUES TO PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SUSTAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

FRIDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH POSITIONS WELL TO OUR EAST...EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AT THE COAST TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL INTERIOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COUNTIES. WIND SPEEDS WILL SUSTAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 12 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7300-7400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 8 TO 16 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....77.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........31     31     31     31     33
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............65     77     83     86     85
RH..............81     51     36     31     32
20 FT WIND......SW 3   SW 7   W 9    W 10   W 9
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     15     20     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1100   4300   4300   7400   7300
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10   W 14   W 14   W 16   W 14
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-1300 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
TEMP............83     75     68     65     62     59
RH..............36     50     68     78     85     91
20 FT WIND......W 9    SW 8   W 6    W 3    W 2    S 1
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     10     10     5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....7300   1300   1300   800    200    200
TRANSPORT WIND..W 14   W 10   W 10   W 7    W 3    W 3
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7800-8100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 3 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....87.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...WOLF
REQUESTED BY...WAYNE BURNS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090423.FALLI.01/JAX