FNUS75 KRIW 231451
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEARTOOTH FACE...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
851 AM MDT THU APR 23 2009

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRE AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS ALREADY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA
TODAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE MORNING...AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS NOT AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY...AND HUMIDITIES NOT QUITE AS DRY. EXPECTING A
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH BETWEEN
1500-1600. BY 1800...MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE IN TO THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP QUITE A BIT...AND SNOW SHOULD LAY DOWN ON
THE FIRE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE BY MORNING.
TOMORROW SHOULD SEE CONTINUED NORTH WINDS WITH MUCH COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPS AND SNOW WITH WITH RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MCDONALD

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1000. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-26 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH GUSTING TO 18 MPH
                    UNTIL 1400...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
                    15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH AFTER
                    1500 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1300.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AROUND 30 MPH AFTER 1500.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL
                    AFTER 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH...SHIFTING AND INCREASING
                    TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 40 MPH AFTER 1500.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING EXCELLENT BY 1400.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    RAIN. SNOW POSSIBLE AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
                    UNTIL 2400...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 25 MPH UNTIL 2100...DECREASING TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH AFTER 2400.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.90 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 6000 FT AGL...BECOMING 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
                    AFTER 2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH UNTIL 2200...BECOMING
                    NORTH AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR BECOMING POOR AFTER 2100.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
                    THE DAY...WITH RAIN MIXED IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....34-38.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 10 MPH AFTER 1200.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH
                    AFTER 1200...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
                    AFTER 2200.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.90 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MCDONALD
REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090423.BEART.01/RIW