FNUS73 KAPX 241321
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR AUSABLE RD BURN...DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
921 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON APRIL 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT A MOSTLY PRECIPITATION FREE AFTERNOON IN THE
HOUGHTON LAKE VICINITY.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO THIN OUT TOWARD NOON.  THERE HAD EARLIER BEEN SOME SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER...BUT THOSE HAVE MOSTLY FALLEN APART AS
OF MID MORNING. WATCHING A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AT MID MORNING...CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE WILL NOT
IMPACT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY HAS BEEN A
BIT SLOWER TO OCCUR THAN EXPECTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT ARE
EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO CLIMB AT LEAST INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THIS SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 35 PERCENT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT) THROUGH NOON...
                    THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........63 AT IGNITION...MAX 74.
RH..................45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER 1 PM.
                    WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH AFTER 1 PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 20
                    TO 22 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 100-2000 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (300) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (900).

$$
FORECASTER...JOHN BORIS
REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090424.AUSAB.01/APX