FNUS72 KJAX 241450
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR FALLING CREEK...USDA - FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1050 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON APRIL 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...A STACKED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE AREA TODAY...THEN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST. THIS
FEATURE WILL AGAIN PROVIDE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE COMBINATION
OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND PLUMMETING DEW-POINT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN MORE
EASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AS THIS RIDGE ADVANCES FARTHER NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...AN INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME HUMIDIFICATION...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7800-8100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 3 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....75.

TIME (EDT)       11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%)..........8      12     16     18
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP.............80     86     89     88
RH...............44     32     27     28
20 FT WIND.......SE 2   SE 5   E 6    E 7
20 FT WIND GUST..5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT).....4700   4700   7800   8000
TRANSPORT WIND...SE 6   SE 6   SE 9   E 10
LAL..............1      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1400 FT AGL IN
                    THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 3 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........18     16     16     15     14     14
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............86     78     72     68     66     63
RH..............32     46     62     72     80     85
20 FT WIND......E 7    E 7    E 6    SE 5   SE 3   SE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10            5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....7700   1400   1400   900    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND..E 10   E 12   E 12   SE 7   SE 3   SE 3
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000-6300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AROUND 17 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....77.

$$
FORECASTER...SHASHY
REQUESTED BY...WAYNE BURNS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090424.FALLI.01/JAX