FNUS72 KJAX 251209
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR FALLING CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
809 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0815 EDT ON APRIL 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL
PROVIDE MODEST INCREASES IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. HOWEVER...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BURN AREA TODAY WITH HUMIDITIES
AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR AROUND 4 HOURS. DISPERSION VALUES WILL
ALSO BE OVER 80 THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
JUST BELOW 15 MPH BUT GUSTS TO OVER 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

MAX TEMPERATURE.....88.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 13 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 4400 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 8 TO 15 MPH BECOMING EAST 18 TO 21 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....84.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
TEMP............69     79     84     86     86
RH..............82     50     36     30     32
20 FT WIND......S 1    SE 6   E 10   E 13   E 13
20 FT WIND GUST.15     20     25     25     25
MIX HGT (FT)....1200   3800   3800   6400   6400
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 12  SE 15  SE 15  E 18   E 21

.TONIGHT...

MIN TEMPERATURE.....57.
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 13 TO 21 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
TEMP............83     76     70     66     63     61
RH..............35     46     60     71     82     89
20 FT WIND......E 12   E 9    E 7    E 5    SE 2   E 1
20 FT WIND GUST.20     20     15     10     5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....4400   2300   2300   1300   300    300
TRANSPORT WIND..E 21   E 21   E 21   E 13   SE 5   SE 5

.SUNDAY...

MAX TEMPERATURE.....86.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 14 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-5500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 21 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....74.

$$
FORECASTER...CARROLL
REQUESTED BY...PETE MYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090425.FALLI.01/JAX