FNUS72 KMLB 251149
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR FAY...US FISH & WILDLIFE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
746 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0714 EDT ON APRIL 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AT THE SURFACE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH TOWERS NEAR THE BURN SITE SHOWING EAST AT ONLY 5 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...BRISK EAST WINDS ARE SEEN JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WITH CAPE
CANAVERAL DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA SHOWING AN AVERAGE OF 18-20KT
FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH 6000 FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS INCREASING VERY QUICKLY ONCE THE AIR MASS STARTS TO HEAT UP.
VERY HIGH DISPERSION VALUES (70+) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE
DAY GIVEN THE RATHER HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS.

IN SPITE OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS...THE AIR MASS OVER THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC IS DESCENDING...WHICH WILL TEND TO DRAG VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BEFORE IT GETS PUSHED ONSHORE. THIS WILL KEEP
RH VALUES LOWER THAN WHAT THEY OTHERWISE MIGHT BE IN A BRISK ONSHORE
FLOW REGIME...SINCE THE LOCAL AIR MASS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.

WITH THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING...WINDS WILL NOT DROP
OFF VERY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...AND LVORI VALUES DO NOT SUPPORT ANY
SMOKE LAYER GETTING TRAPPED NEAR GROUND LEVEL AND BECOMING DENSE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO BETWEEN
                    15 AND 18 MPH BY NOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-4800 FT AGL
                    BY LATE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 20 TO 22 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....71.
LVORI...............0.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............75  78  79  79  80  80  80  80  79  78
RH..............70  62  53  48  46  46  46  50  53  56
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..9   13  14  15  16  16  17  18  18  18
20 FT WIND GUST.12  18  20  23  25  25  25  25  25  25

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 9 TO 18 MPH DECREASING TO 6 TO 8 MPH
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800-900 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 16 TO 21 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7.
LVORI...............4.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-4100 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 23 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....60.
LVORI...............1.

$$
FORECASTER...CRISTALDI
REQUESTED BY...JEFF SCHARDT
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20090425.FAY__.01/MLB