FNUS71 KCTP 280237 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR D-2-BU1...ARMY NATIONAL GUARD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1037 PM EDT MON APR 27 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. DESPITE THE RECENT GREEN-UP...DEAD FUEL MOISTURE IS STILL RATHER LOW BASED ON WFAS DATA. THE FIRE DANGER CATEGORY WILL RANGE BETWEEN HIGH AND VERY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENN. HOWEVER BASED ON WINDS AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RED FLAG CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87. MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 6 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 16 MPH...INCREASING TO 16 TO 17 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........30 33 39 37 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............72 78 82 86 RH..............55 44 36 31 20 FT WIND......W 5 W 7 SW 9 W 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 20 20 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 13 W 15 W 17 W 17 LAL.............1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55. MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 2000...THEN >25 STRIKES UNTIL 2300...THEN NO TSTMS. MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 7 TO 16 MPH...INCREASING TO 18 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........40 51 59 69 77 84 WEATHER COV..... LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............79 74 69 66 64 61 RH..............38 46 54 61 66 71 20 FT WIND......W 7 NW 6 NW 5 N 5 NE 4 NE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 25 20 20 15 TRANSPORT WIND..W 13 W 7 N 10 N 15 NE 18 NE 18 LAL.............1 5 5 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 4 2 2 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING WINDS........ HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........94 100 96 91 87 88 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN TEMP............57 57 58 60 62 63 RH..............79 78 71 66 58 54 20 FT WIND......NE 6 NE 6 NE 6 E 6 E 6 E 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 10 10 TRANSPORT WIND..M M M M M M LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...BEACHLER REQUESTED BY...SHANNON HENRY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090428.D2BU1.01/CTP