FNUS73 KAPX 291312 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR KNUTH...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 912 AM EDT WED APR 29 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 EDT ON APRIL 29. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY PROVIDING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. PREVAILING SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL RESULT IN A FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER AT THE BURN LOCATION...THAN POINTS FURTHER INLAND. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE 30 PERCENT CLOSER IN THOSE AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE. IF TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO WARM SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED /UPPER 50S/...RH VALUES COULD DROP TOWARD 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY PRODUCING SOME RECOVERY IN HUMIDITY READINGS. A BIT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND A LIKELY CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR MANY AREAS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........51 AT IGNITION...MAX 54. RH..................37 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 12 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE EAST WINDS AT 6 TO 13 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 18 TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2600-2800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (600). TIME (EDT) 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........45 45 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE TEMP............51 52 RH..............37 36 20 FT WIND......E 11 E 8 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 SMOKE DISP......600 500 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 46. RH..................MAX 77 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........45 58 58 58 67 67 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............52 49 48 46 46 46 RH..............38 46 49 58 65 65 20 FT WIND......E 7 E 6 E 5 E 5 SE 4 SE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 5 SMOKE DISP......300 100 0 0 0 0 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61. RH..................MIN 62 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........MAX 3. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........67 95 95 95 100 100 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............48 49 53 56 59 61 RH..............68 77 71 66 62 62 20 FT WIND......SE 5 S 5 S 6 S 7 SE 9 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 2 3 2 $$ FORECASTER...JAMES KEYSOR REQUESTED BY...BEN EBY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090429.KNUTH.01/APX