FNUS73 KAPX 041750 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR COMP 7...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 150 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1430 EDT ON MAY 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... .DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE BURN SITE...WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...COUPLED WITH AMBIENT DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON. BIGGEST CONCERN IS INLAND PENETRATING LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT PROGS SUGGEST SOME VEERING OF THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS LAKE BREEZE APPROACHES. HOWEVER...IF LAKE BREEZE MANAGES TO COME FARTHER INLAND...A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE. EITHER WAY...LOOK FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS... AVERAGING 3 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. AFTER DECENT RH RECOVERY TONIGHT DUE TO SURFACE COOLING... READINGS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET TUESDAY MORNING AS MIXING DEVELOPS ...WITH VALUES FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY IGNITION TIME. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT IGNITION TIME...WITH SOME VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS LAKE MICHIGAN INFLUENCES THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC WIND REGIME. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 70S. GIVEN SOME CONCERN FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .REST OF TODAY... TEMPERATURE.........68 AT IGNITION...MAX 69. RH..................27 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 25 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. TIME (EDT) 2 PM 4 PM TEMP............67 69 RH..............27 25 20 FT WIND......S 3 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 HAINES INDEX....4 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 72. RH..................MIN 28 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8700 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1400). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........54 55 55 55 64 64 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............43 44 54 62 67 71 RH..............73 73 52 39 32 28 20 FT WIND......SE 5 SE 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 10 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 5 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 100 600 1100 1300 1400 $$ FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH REQUESTED BY...JOE RASDPOTNIK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090504.COMP7.01/APX