FNUS73 KAPX 041454 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR EVERGREEN...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1054 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 EDT ON MAY 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE BURN SITE...BOTH AT IGNITION TIME AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG MAY SUNSHINE AND AMBIENT DRY AIRMASS DROPS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE MID 20S BY IGNITION TIME...WITH VALUES REMAINING IN THE MID 20S THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOISTURE OFF LAKE HURON WILL RESULT IN SOME RH RECOVERY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN DECIDELY SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY BY IGNITION TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZE SWEEPS ACROSS THE BURN SITE. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STABILIZE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TONIGHT...WHILE PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S WILL RESULT IN DECENT RH RECOVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY. TUESDAY...ANOTHER WARM...DRY DAY EXPECTED WITH JUST A GENERAL INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE MID 20S BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY. WITH SOME COOLING OFF LAKE HURON...EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S SHOULD STABILIZE OR EVEN DROP A FEW DEGREES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........63 AT IGNITION...MAX 64. RH..................24 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6100-7100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400). TIME (EDT) 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........10 0 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............63 62 RH..............24 25 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 HAINES INDEX....5 5 SMOKE DISP......400 400 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 34. RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-200 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........0 0 0 0 20 20 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............61 58 50 44 41 39 RH..............27 33 44 53 59 64 20 FT WIND......SE 7 SE 6 SE 4 SE 3 SE 2 SE 1 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 5 5 HAINES INDEX....5 4 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......500 300 100 0 0 0 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 66. RH..................MIN 26 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........20 37 37 37 54 54 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............36 38 51 61 65 66 RH..............75 76 46 32 28 26 20 FT WIND......SE 1 S 2 S 4 S 6 SE 6 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 10 15 15 $$ FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH REQUESTED BY...JOE ALYEA TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090504.EVERG.01/APX