FNUS73 KAPX 041305
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR FROST POCKET...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
905 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE BURN SITE...BOTH AT IGNITION
TIME AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG MAY SUNSHINE AND AMBIENT DRY
AIRMASS DROPS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE MID 20S BY IGNITION
TIME...WITH VALUES CONTINUING TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S DURING THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SLOW RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE
DURATION...WITH SOUTH WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 8 MPH AT THE
SURFACE...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 10 TO 12 MPH. SOME BACKING TO A
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 6 PM.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........62 AT IGNITION...MAX 66.
RH..................25 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 7 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6500-7900 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (600).

TIME (EDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........5      10     10
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............62     66     64
RH..............25     22     23
20 FT WIND......S 6    S 6    S 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....4      4      5
SMOKE DISP......400    500    600

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH
REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090504.FROST.01/APX