FNUS73 KAPX 041837 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR RESERVE RD...STATE OF MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 237 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1630 EDT ON MAY 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING WIND FORECAST AT THE BURN SITE THIS AFTERNOON AS AREA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZES. CURRENT LIGHT SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE SOUTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 5 TO 8 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 10 TO 12 MPH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH IGNITION RH VALUES VALUES IN THE MID 20S. SOME SLOW RECOVERY WILL BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL FROM THE MID 60S. DECENT RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH RH READINGS INCREASING BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........65 AT IGNITION...MAX 66. RH..................29 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 28 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 7600 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400). TIME (EDT) 4 PM SKY (%).........10 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE TEMP............65 RH..............28 20 FT WIND......S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 HAINES INDEX....5 SMOKE DISP......300 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 37. RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........11 31 31 32 48 48 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............63 60 52 45 42 39 RH..............29 33 44 60 67 76 20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 5 E 4 E 4 E 3 E 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 5 10 HAINES INDEX....5 4 5 5 5 4 SMOKE DISP......500 600 200 0 0 0 $$ FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090504.RESER.01/APX