FNUS73 KAPX 041316
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR VOYER BOG...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
916 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE BURN SITE...BOTH AT
IGNITION TIME AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG MAY SUNSHINE AND
AMBIENT DRY AIRMASS DROPS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE MID 20S
BY IGNITION TIME...WITH VALUES CONTINUING TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SLOW RECOVERY IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE
DURATION...WITH SURFACE SOUTH WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 8 MPH AT IGNITION TIME
...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 10 TO 12 MPH. WINDS BECOME A BIGGER CHALLENGE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS LAKE BREEZES...BOTH FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN AND HURON...APPROACH THE BURN SITE. CURRENT ESTIMATES SHOW
THE BURN SITE REMAINING AT CONVERGENCE POINT OF THESE LAKE BREEZES...
MAINTAINING A LIGHT SOUTH COMPONENT. AFTER 6 PM...WINDS SHOULD DECIDELY
BACK MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........62 AT IGNITION...MAX 67.
RH..................26 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7100 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 7100-8100 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (600).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........5   10  10  10  10
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............62  65  67  66  64
RH..............26  24  22  23  24
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..5   4   4   4   4
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......500 500 600 600 600

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH
REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090504.VOYER.01/APX