FNUS73 KAPX 041332
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR WX STATION BURN...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
932 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST AT THE
BURN SITE THIS AFTERNOON AS LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE APPROACHES AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
IGNITION RH VALUES VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S...WITH READINGS DROPPING
FURTHER INTO THE MID 20S DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...SOME MID AFTERNOON RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AS SOMEWHAT MORE
MOIST AIR FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SWEEPS ACROSS...WITH READINGS BACK TO
AROUND 30 BY EARLY EVENING. INITIAL LIGHT SURFACE SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
IGNITION TIME WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER THE
NOON HOUR A LAKE BREEZE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING BETWEEN 5 TO 8 MPH...WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 10 TO 12 MPH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 68.
RH..................28 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 7200-7400 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (600).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........5   5   10  10  10  10
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............60  63  66  68  67  66
RH..............28  26  25  24  27  29
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  W   W   NW  NW  N
20 FT WIND SPD..5   4   4   5   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......600 600 500 500 400 300

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH
REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090504.WXSTA.01/APX