FNUS71 KCTP 031607
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR BRADFORD OAK BURN...ALLEGHENY NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1207 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1210 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE W-E ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
PA THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN UP INTO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT ONLY A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THE BURN AREA. THE WINDS WILL BE
CALM IN THE MORNING AND LIGHT AND NE/E THROUGH THE DAY...PEAKING
IN THE AFTERNOON. RH/S SHOULD DIP INTO THE 40S.

A NEARLY IDENTICAL DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH RAIN JUST TO
THE SOUTH AND LIGHT E WINDS. RH/S MAY ONLY DIP TO ABOUT 50 PCT ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
                                  LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO
                    7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 5 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........21     23     32
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
TEMP............55     59     62
RH..............52     45     40
20 FT WIND......NE 6   NE 6   NE 6
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15
TRANSPORT WIND..E 13   E 10   E 9
LAL.............1      1      1
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 3 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........42     50     60     66     74     80
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............58     54     50     48     47     45
RH..............47     54     62     69     74     81
20 FT WIND......NE 5   NE 5   NE 3   NE 2   E 2    E 2
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     5      5      5      5
TRANSPORT WIND..E 9    E 10   E 8    E 6    E 3    E 3
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 6 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........86     90     90     89     89     88
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............42     44     49     53     57     60
RH..............92     84     71     61     54     48
20 FT WIND......E 4    E 5    E 6    E 6    SE 6   E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5      10     15     15     15     15
TRANSPORT WIND..E 6    E 8    E 10   E 13   E 14   NE 13
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/DANGELO
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS MILLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090504.BRADF.01/CTP