FNUS75 KBOU 050051 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR MT EVANS UNIT 16...CSFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 650 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE STATE TUESDAY WITH MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BURN AREA TO BECOME WARMER AND DRIER THAN TODAY (MONDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALIGN WITH THE GRASS CREEK DRAINAGE DIRECTION TO ALLOW SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....60. MIN HUMIDITY........25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN WEST 14-20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28-36 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 40-52 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2600 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 6000-7000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. MIN TEMPERATURE.....33. MAX HUMIDITY........68%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 11-21 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28-36 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 9-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5600-6000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 400-1400 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....61. MIN HUMIDITY........22%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 28-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1200 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 7200-8200 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR MT EVANS UNIT 16. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 05/04-18 60 10 50 39 W 7 7 2 2 W41 6391 W 31 172780 E 05/04-19 60 10 49 39 W 7 2 5925 W 29 148054 V 05/04-20 60 10 46 42 W 7 2 5459 W 25 123327 V 05/04-21 60 5 43 47 W 7 7 2 1 W52 4993 W 23 98600 G 05/04-22 60 5 41 51 W 7 1 4197 W 21 78120 G 05/04-23 60 5 40 56 W 7 1 3400 W 18 57639 F 05/05-00 65 5 39 59 SW 7 7 2 1 W44 2604 W 16 37159 P 05/05-01 65 5 38 62 W 7 1 1942 W 16 27579 P 05/05-02 65 5 37 65 W 7 1 1280 W 16 18000 P 05/05-03 65 5 36 67 W 7 7 2 1 W46 618 W 16 8420 P 05/05-04 65 5 35 69 W 7 1 683 W 20 11697 P 05/05-05 65 5 35 70 W 8 1 749 W 22 14975 P 05/05-06 73 5 35 70 W 8 8 2 1 W53 815 W 25 18252 P 05/05-07 73 5 37 67 W 9 1 1996 W 31 62609 G 05/05-08 73 5 41 58 W 10 1 3177 W 36 106966 V 05/05-09 73 5 45 50 W 12 12 2 1 W43 4359 W 40 151323 E 05/05-10 73 5 49 43 W 12 1 4904 W 40 173586 E 05/05-11 73 5 52 38 W 12 1 5449 W 41 195849 E 05/05-12 70 5 55 34 W 12 12 2 1 W51 5995 W 41 218111 E 05/05-13 70 5 56 31 W 12 1 6446 W 44 245286 E 05/05-14 70 20 57 28 W 12 3 6897 W 45 272460 E 05/05-15 70 20 58 26 W 12 12 2 3 W54 7349 W 47 299634 E 05/05-16 70 20 58 25 W 16 3 6901 W 48 291236 E 05/05-17 70 20 58 26 W 20 3 6453 W 51 282837 E 05/05-18 55 20 56 28 W 21 33 3 3 W46 6005 W 53 274438 E 05/05-19 55 20 54 31 W 17 3 5679 W 31 177570 E 05/05-20 55 0 50 37 W 15 1 3584 W 24 100368 V 05/05-21 55 0 46 44 W 13 13 2 1 W63 1488 W 18 23166 P 05/05-22 55 0 43 50 W 10 1 1139 W 16 16974 P 05/05-23 55 0 41 56 W 9 1 791 W 14 10782 P 05/06-00 45 0 39 60 W 9 9 2 1 W64 442 W 12 4590 P 05/06-01 45 0 38 63 W 9 1 380 W 12 3949 P 05/06-02 45 0 36 66 W 10 1 317 W 12 3308 P 05/06-03 45 0 35 68 W 10 10 2 1 W62 255 W 12 2667 P 05/06-04 45 0 35 68 W 12 1 265 W 13 2854 P 05/06-05 45 0 35 67 W 12 1 275 W 13 3042 P 05/06-06 35 0 35 65 W 12 12 2 1 W60 285 W 13 3229 P 05/06-07 35 0 37 60 W 9 1 572 W 13 6192 P 05/06-08 35 0 40 51 SW 7 1 859 W 13 9155 P 05/06-09 35 0 45 43 SW 5 5 2 1 W60 1146 W 13 12117 P 05/06-10 35 0 49 35 SW 6 1 3161 W 17 65344 G 05/06-11 35 0 53 31 W 9 1 5175 W 22 118571 V 05/06-12 45 0 55 28 W 12 12 2 1 W59 7189 W 28 171798 E 05/06-13 45 0 57 25 W 15 1 7525 W 30 194121 E 05/06-14 45 0 58 24 W 17 1 7861 W 31 216444 E 05/06-15 45 0 59 23 W 18 30 2 1 W63 8196 W 33 238767 E 05/06-16 45 0 59 22 W 18 1 7888 W 33 232219 E 05/06-17 45 0 59 23 W 18 1 7580 W 35 225671 E 05/06-18 48 0 57 24 W 17 28 2 1 W68 7272 W 35 219123 E 05/06-19 48 0 55 27 W 17 1 5017 W 29 148597 V 05/06-20 48 0 51 32 W 16 1 2762 W 23 78071 G 05/06-21 48 0 47 38 W 16 25 2 1 W64 507 W 17 7545 P 05/06-22 48 0 45 43 W 16 1 450 W 16 6524 P 05/06-23 48 0 43 49 W 16 1 392 W 16 5502 P 05/07-00 42 0 41 55 W 16 25 2 1 W62 335 W 15 4480 P 05/07-01 42 0 40 57 W 15 1 292 W 15 3796 P 05/07-02 42 0 38 59 W 15 1 248 W 14 3112 P 05/07-03 42 0 37 61 W 14 22 2 1 W62 205 W 14 2429 P 05/07-04 42 0 37 61 W 13 1 205 W 13 2284 P 05/07-05 42 0 37 61 W 12 1 206 W 12 2140 P 05/07-06 43 0 37 60 W 10 10 2 1 W62 207 W 12 1996 P 05/07-07 43 0 39 56 W 9 1 312 W 12 3142 P 05/07-08 43 0 43 47 W 9 1 417 W 12 4289 P 05/07-09 43 0 48 40 W 9 9 2 1 W56 522 W 12 5436 P 05/07-10 43 0 52 34 W 8 1 3175 W 17 70886 G 05/07-11 43 0 56 30 W 8 1 5829 W 22 136335 V 05/07-12 45 0 59 28 W 8 8 2 1 W52 8482 W 28 201785 E 05/07-13 45 0 61 26 NW 8 1 8889 W 29 223730 E 05/07-14 45 0 62 26 NW 8 1 9296 W 30 245675 E 05/07-15 45 0 63 25 NW 8 8 2 1 W55 9703 W 32 267620 E 05/07-16 45 0 63 26 NW 8 1 9151 W 31 248041 E 05/07-17 45 0 62 27 NW 8 1 8599 W 30 228463 E 05/07-18 45 0 59 30 NW 8 8 2 1 W59 8047 W 30 208884 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...KIRK A WILL REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090505.MTEVA.01/BOU