FNUS73 KDMX 051312 FWSDMX SPOT FORECAST FOR CHAPMAN WMA...IOWA DNR-USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 812 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MAY 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. PLEASE REMEMBER TO SUBMIT A MID BURN OBSERVATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN. .DISCUSSION... BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE REGION. THE AIRMASS WILL BE WEAKLY UNSTABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...YIELDING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........64 AT IGNITION...MAX 73. RH..................58 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 45 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 16 TO 23 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (93300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (144200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........49 31 22 29 43 59 73 87 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............64 66 68 69 70 70 70 69 RH..............58 54 51 49 45 45 47 49 EYE LVL WND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW EYE LVL WND SPD.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 EYE LVL WND GST.20 20 20 20 20 20 20 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.5 5.6 6.7 7.1 7.6 8.0 7.3 6.6 MIXNG WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW MIXNG WIND SPD..21 20 18 18 20 21 22 23 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54. RH..................MAX 83 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 17 TO 22 MPH DECREASING TO 6 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (110600 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (6900 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........94 93 91 89 84 78 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............70 65 62 60 57 56 RH..............47 56 62 64 75 80 EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 7 SW 5 SW 5 S 5 S 6 SW 6 EYE LEVEL WIND..15 10 10 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....5800 2100 300 300 300 500 MIXNG WIND......SW 22 SW 10 S 6 S 9 S 12 SW 12 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 4 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 72. RH..................MIN 41 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 7 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 9 TO 11 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6700 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 12 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (54900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (84800 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........73 76 78 59 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TEMP............56 64 69 71 RH..............83 60 47 41 EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 6G10 N 6G15 SE 9G20 W 3G5 MIX HGT (FT)....1000 5000 4100 6700 MIXNG WIND......SW 12 S 20 SW 16 W 10 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...MOYER REQUESTED BY...STEVEN WOODRUFF TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090505.CHAPM.01/DMX