FNUS75 KBOU 060058 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR MT EVANS - BEAR CREEK BOWL - UNIT 16 GRASS CREEK ...CSFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 645 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A DRIER...YET BRISK WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE A SLOW WARMING TREND. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT EXCELLENT DISPERSION BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....33. MAX HUMIDITY........67%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 13-23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 36-44 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6400-7400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 200-800 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....63. MIN HUMIDITY........25-29%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17-28 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 36-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1600 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 7800-8800 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN FAIR. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....35. MAX HUMIDITY........62%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 13-23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24-32 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 200-600 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1600. MAX TEMPERATURE.....64. MIN HUMIDITY........18-22%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10-20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-24 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 28-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1600 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 8200-9200 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR MT EVANS - BEAR CREEK BOWL - UNIT 16 GRASS CREEK . +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 05/05-15 70 20 58 33 W 21 33 2 3 NW41 9714 W 38 322141 E 05/05-16 70 20 58 32 W 22 3 8953 W 40 308924 E 05/05-17 70 20 58 32 W 23 3 8193 W 41 295707 E 05/05-18 56 10 56 34 W 23 37 2 1 W32 7432 W 44 282490 E 05/05-19 56 10 54 36 W 18 1 6306 W 44 238496 E 05/05-20 56 10 50 41 W 16 1 5179 W 43 194503 E 05/05-21 39 0 46 47 W 14 22 3 1 W51 4053 W 43 150509 E 05/05-22 39 0 43 52 W 14 1 2943 W 39 106786 V 05/05-23 39 0 41 56 W 16 1 1834 W 35 63062 G 05/06-00 30 0 39 59 W 17 26 4 1 W44 724 W 31 19339 P 05/06-01 30 0 38 62 W 16 1 569 W 28 14403 P 05/06-02 30 0 36 65 W 15 1 413 W 24 9466 P 05/06-03 39 0 35 67 W 14 22 3 1 W60 257 W 21 4530 P 05/06-04 39 0 35 67 W 12 1 266 W 17 4033 P 05/06-05 39 0 35 67 W 10 1 274 W 15 3536 P 05/06-06 31 0 35 65 W 9 9 2 1 W63 282 W 13 3039 P 05/06-07 31 0 36 60 SW 8 1 1915 W 18 45861 F 05/06-08 31 0 41 51 SW 7 1 3547 W 24 88683 G 05/06-09 31 0 45 42 SW 7 7 2 1 W58 5179 W 29 131505 V 05/06-10 31 0 50 35 SW 7 1 6270 W 31 174022 E 05/06-11 31 0 54 30 W 8 1 7360 W 33 216538 E 05/06-12 35 0 57 26 W 10 10 2 1 W53 8451 W 36 259055 E 05/06-13 35 0 58 24 W 13 1 8688 W 37 274158 E 05/06-14 35 0 60 23 W 15 1 8924 W 37 289262 E 05/06-15 35 0 61 22 W 18 30 2 1 W52 9161 W 38 304365 E 05/06-16 35 0 61 21 W 18 1 8333 W 39 279899 E 05/06-17 35 0 60 22 W 18 1 7504 W 39 255433 E 05/06-18 48 0 58 24 W 17 28 2 1 W54 6676 W 40 230967 E 05/06-19 48 0 56 28 W 16 1 4851 W 26 130013 V 05/06-20 48 0 52 34 W 15 1 2700 W 22 68902 G 05/06-21 48 0 48 40 W 14 22 2 1 W63 550 W 16 7791 P 05/06-22 48 0 45 46 W 14 1 479 W 16 6760 P 05/06-23 48 0 43 50 W 14 1 407 W 16 5728 P 05/07-00 42 0 41 54 W 15 24 2 1 W63 336 W 16 4696 P 05/07-01 42 0 40 58 W 17 1 311 W 18 4747 P 05/07-02 42 0 38 60 W 20 1 285 W 20 4798 P 05/07-03 42 0 37 62 W 22 35 2 1 W62 260 W 22 4849 P 05/07-04 42 0 37 62 W 21 1 298 W 20 4999 P 05/07-05 42 0 37 61 W 18 1 337 W 18 5148 P 05/07-06 43 0 37 59 W 15 24 2 1 W61 375 W 16 5298 P 05/07-07 43 0 39 54 W 13 1 766 W 16 10631 P 05/07-08 43 0 43 45 W 10 1 1156 W 16 15964 P 05/07-09 43 0 48 37 W 8 8 2 1 W60 1547 W 16 21297 P 05/07-10 43 0 52 30 W 8 1 3918 W 21 91084 G 05/07-11 43 0 56 26 W 9 1 6290 W 25 160871 E 05/07-12 45 5 59 23 W 12 12 2 1 W59 8661 W 31 230659 E 05/07-13 45 5 61 21 W 13 1 8888 W 31 241723 E 05/07-14 45 5 62 20 W 15 1 9116 W 32 252788 E 05/07-15 45 5 63 19 W 16 25 2 1 W56 9343 W 32 263853 E 05/07-16 45 10 63 18 W 17 2 8658 W 31 233514 E 05/07-17 45 10 62 19 W 17 2 7974 W 29 203174 E 05/07-18 45 10 59 21 W 16 25 2 2 W53 7289 W 28 172835 E 05/07-19 45 10 57 23 W 15 2 4977 W 22 116246 V 05/07-20 45 10 52 29 SW 14 2 2665 W 16 59657 F 05/07-21 45 10 47 36 SW 10 10 2 2 W56 353 SW 10 3068 P 05/07-22 45 10 43 43 S 8 2 309 SW 7 2157 P 05/07-23 45 10 41 49 S 5 2 265 W 5 1246 P 05/08-00 45 0 39 55 CALM 1 2 1 W59 221 W 2 335 P 05/08-01 45 0 37 59 S 2 1 212 SW 2 443 P 05/08-02 45 0 35 64 S 2 1 203 SW 3 550 P 05/08-03 45 0 33 67 S 3 3 2 1 W62 194 SW 3 658 P 05/08-04 45 0 33 67 SW 5 1 200 SW 5 909 P 05/08-05 45 0 33 67 SW 5 1 206 W 7 1161 P 05/08-06 45 0 33 66 W 6 6 3 1 W67 212 W 8 1412 P 05/08-07 45 0 35 59 W 6 1 415 W 9 3688 P 05/08-08 45 0 38 52 W 6 1 618 W 10 5963 P 05/08-09 45 0 43 44 W 6 6 2 1 W66 821 W 12 8239 P 05/08-10 45 0 47 37 W 6 1 3160 W 16 66526 G 05/08-11 45 0 51 33 W 7 1 5500 W 22 124813 V 05/08-12 52 10 53 30 W 7 7 2 2 W64 7840 W 26 183099 E 05/08-13 52 10 55 29 W 7 2 8182 W 28 194500 E 05/08-14 52 10 56 29 W 7 2 8523 W 28 205900 E 05/08-15 52 10 57 30 W 7 7 2 2 W62 8865 W 29 217300 E 05/08-16 52 10 57 31 W 8 2 8521 W 26 198824 E 05/08-17 52 10 56 33 W 8 2 8176 W 25 180348 E 05/08-18 52 10 54 36 W 8 8 2 2 W59 7832 W 24 161872 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER/ENTREKIN REQUESTED BY...ALLEN GALLAMORE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090506.MTEVA.01/BOU