FNUS73 KGRR 062001
FWSGRR

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR DANAHER CREEK 3...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
401 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1730 EDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT
AREA OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME CLEARING WILL FOLLOW BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT).
                    SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE.........67 AT IGNITION...MAX 73.
RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 13 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12
                    MPH.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL FROM
                    LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 7200-7700 FT AGL THROUGH MID
                    AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 5700 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5200-5700 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE DAY.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    TO EXCELLENT (500-900 KNOT-FT) FROM LATE
                    MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
                    INCREASING TO EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (1200-1600
                    KNOT-FT) THROUGH MID AFTERNOON DECREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT /900 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.
                    MAX...EXCELLENT /900 KNOT-FT/ LATE IN THE DAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
                    RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 55.
RH..................MAX 75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 7 TO 16 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900-1400 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (200-600 KNOT-FT) DECREASING
                    TO POOR TO POOR (0-100 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURE.........MAX 73.
RH..................MIN 44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDDAY.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 15 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800 FT AGL FROM
                    LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 6200 FT AGL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
                    INCREASING TO 9400-9900 FT AGL THROUGH MID
                    AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 7000 FT AGL DECREASING
                    TO 4000 FT AGL IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (100-300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (800 KNOT-FT) FROM LATE MORNING
                    THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (1500 KNOT-FT) THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
                    INCREASING TO EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (2100-2400
                    KNOT-FT) THROUGH MID AFTERNOON DECREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (1500 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (700 KNOT-FT) IN THE EVENING.

$$
FORECASTER...MARINO
REQUESTED BY...STEVE HATTING
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20090506.DANAH.01/GRR