FNUS74 KLIX 061250 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR CPT G-07...U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 750 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... STATIONARY FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH TODAY. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SEWD TOWARDS LA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE STATE BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES SE LA. GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN AND AROUND THE AREA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY HIGH. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOG POTENTIAL IS RELATIVELY LOW THOUGH PATCHY LIGHT IS POSSIBLE. AS WITH THE MOISTURE...SOUTH WINDS ARE HERE TO STAY FOR AWHILE. REMARKS... 1. AND 2. DON/T WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG...BUT PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW FOR THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS/MORNINGS. IF ANY DEVELOPS...EXPECT VIS ONLY DROPPING TO THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE. 3. AND 4. THE PROBABILITY OF WINDS BECOMING CALM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT ARE QUITE HIGH WITH TONIGHT HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF THE TWO. EVEN IF THEY DON/T GO COMPLETELY CALM...EXPECTED VRB03 MPH. THE ABILITY TO FORECAST GRAVITY WAVES IS QUITE LOW. IF ONE WERE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...THINKING IS THAT IT WOULD COME FROM THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS TX/OK/AR. 5. AND 6. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE MORNING WITH SURFACE HEATING WITH 12G20 MPH AS PEAK CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. 7. TOUGH CALL ON THE LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING LIKE SPOT AREA WITH BE ON THE SOUTH END OF THE ACTIVITY. PROBABILITY WOULD FALL SOMEWHERE BTW LOW TO MID RANGE. 8. COMPLEXITY COMES INTO PLAY WITH NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND IMPULSES TRACKING ALONG THIS FLOW JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. GENERALLY AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP THUS CREATING A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE MAIN LIKELY CULPRIT IS MOST LIKELY THE STRENGTH OF SFC HIGH IN THE EASTERN GULF AND SFC LOW IN WEST TEXAS. SO YES... WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT ONLY BY A FEW MPH. OF THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THURS SHOULD HAVE THE LIGHTER OF WINDS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83. MIN HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-4500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TIME (CDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........53 53 60 58 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............78 81 83 82 RH..............79 74 70 72 20 FT WIND......S 9 S 10 S 10 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 15 MIX HGT (FT-AGL)3100 3100 4500 3400 MIX HGT (M-AGL).940 940 1370 1040 TRAN WIND (MPH).S 25 S 25 S 22 SW 17 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 11 S 11 S 10 SW 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 30 30 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000-1300 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........58 50 52 52 65 68 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............81 76 73 72 71 71 RH..............72 85 97 100 100 93 20 FT WIND......S 7 S 6 S 5 S 3 S 3 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT-AGL)3400 1300 1000 1000 1000 1100 MIX HGT (M-AGL).1040 400 300 300 300 340 TRAN WIND (MPH).SW 17 S 15 S 12 S 12 S 10 S 10 TRAN WIND (M/S).SW 8 S 7 S 5 S 5 S 4 S 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85. MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900-4500 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........68 50 55 55 53 52 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............71 73 80 83 85 84 RH..............97 90 72 65 61 65 20 FT WIND......SW 3 SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 SW 8 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT-AGL)1100 1700 3900 3900 4500 4200 MIX HGT (M-AGL).340 520 1190 1190 1370 1280 TRAN WIND (MPH).S 10 SW 14 SW 13 SW 13 SW 17 SW 17 TRAN WIND (M/S).S 4 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 8 SW 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 20 20 20 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...SAMI GRAY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20090506.CPTG0.01/LIX